Think tank BIEC expects significant fall of unemployment in summer, autumn

By bne IntelliNews April 2, 2014

The labour market indicator WRP, which informs in advance about changes in employment volumes and jobless rate, fell by 0.7pts m/m to 88.4pts for the ninth time in a row (after its 11th consecutive growths), according to the Office for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC).
The pace of the indicator's decline has been accelerating, which implies that the registered unemployment rate should fall - at first, moderately, but then - more decisively: in the summer and autumn of this year.
BIEC notes that the current revival of economic activity will probably translate into an improvement on the labour market only with a certain delay, but the mild winter has probably contributed to an earlier-than-usual seasonal recovery.
After eliminating seasonal factors, the unemployment rate was down by 0.3pps m/m to 12.9%, i.e. it returned to the level below 13.0% for the first time in 18 months. According to the data of national stats office GUS, Poland's registered unemployment rate amounted to 13.9% at the end of February of 2014, i.e. it was down by 0.1pp from the previous month.

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