The South African Reserve Bank said that its composite leading business cycle indicator decreased by 0.6% m/m in June, after dropping by 0.4% m/m in May. Leading indicators are a popular way to predict turning points in the business cycle.
Ten component series were available for June, and six of them dropped, while the remaining four rose. In June, the largest negative effect was attributed to a decline in the number of approved residential building plans, followed by a decrease in the export commodity price index. On the other hand, major positive contributions resulted from a widening of the interest rate spread, as well as acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply.
In y/y terms, the composite leading business cycle indicator increased by 2.4% in June, after rising by 2% in May.
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