Slovak FinMin raises 2013 GDP growth outlook to 0.8% on improved exports, household consumption outlook

By bne IntelliNews September 19, 2013

Slovakia’s finance ministry revised up on Thursday (Sep 19) its 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 0.8% from 0.5% expected in June on the back of improved outlook for exports given the recent favourable developments in the eurozone, its major trading partner. The improved economic growth forecast is also supported by better than expected developments in household consumption, which is now seen expanding by 0.5% this year, compared to a 0.7% contraction projected in June. Household consumption, which has been a major drawback to Slovakia’s export-driven economic growth in 2010-12, has been supported by improving consumer confidence and falling inflation, the finance ministry's think-tank Institute for Financial Policy (IFP) said. Household consumption increased by 1.5% y/y in Q2, posting its first annual growth since Q3 2009.

The expected annual growth in Slovak exports for 2013 has been upgraded to 4.8% y/y from 2.6% y/y, reflecting the economic recovery in the eurozone.

IFP maintained its growth outlook for 2014 at 2.2% and predicted economic growth to accelerate to 2.9% in 2015 and further to 3.1% in 2016.

The finance ministry noted that the improved 2013 growth outlook will have a favourable effect on the tax base, helping for the achievement of the government’s 3% budget deficit target.

Forecast of main economic indicators, Sep 2013 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014
  actual current forecast   previous forecast  
Real GDP growth, y/y 2.0% 0.8% 2.2% 0.5% 2.2%
Household consumption, y/y change -0.6% 0.5% 0.8% -0.7% 0.8%
Government consumption, y/y change -0.6% -0.7% -1.2% -1.9% -0.4%
Gross fixed capital formation, y/y change -3.7% -5.8% 2.9% -5.3% 3.5%
Exports of goods and services, y/y change 8.6% 4.8% 4.3% 2.6% 4.3%
Imports of goods and services, y/y change 2.8% 1.7% 3.3% 0.5% 3.5%
CPI inflation (average) 3.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9%
Real wage, y/y change -1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.7%
Employment, y/y change -0.1% -1.0% 0.2% -0.7% 0.4%
Unemployment rate (Labour Force Sample Survey) 14.0% 14.5% 14.3% 14.5% 14.2%
Trade balance (% of GDP) 5.0% 7.5% 7.5% 6.4% 7.1%
Current account balance (% of GDP) 2.2% 3.2% 3.5% 2.2% 3.0%
Source: Institute for Financial Policy          
Read in IntelliNews Pro
Get IntelliNews Pro

Related Articles

How Ukrainian grain wrecked the Polish grain market

The Polish grain market has been thrown into disarray by cheap Ukrainian grain that sent prices plummeting in April, causing Warsaw to impose a five-month ban, backed up by the European Commission. ... more

Slovak OFZ aims to move part of production to Uzbekistan

Metallurgical company OFZ plans to transfer part of its production from Slovakia to Uzbekistan, The Slovak Spectator has reported. The ferroalloy production company from Oravsky Podzamok has ... more

EBRD 2023: EBRD, EU and ILX to co-operate to boost private-sector finance in Emerging Europe

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Union, and ILX Management, an emerging market asset manager, have joined forces to enhance private-sector finance in Emerging ... more

Follow Us On

Most Read

  1. Ukraine's birth rate plummets to 300-year low as country’s population collapses
    8 days ago
  2. EU finally boosts defence investment into arms production as Ukraine runs out of ammo
    1 month ago
  3. Don't mention the "D" word - Ukraine
    6 days ago
  4. The 'wet-bulb' set to kill hundreds of thousands of people if temperatures and humidity levels continue to rise
    3 days ago
  5. Europe unlikely to tackle Russian LNG imports anytime soon
    3 days ago
  1. Russia could pay off its entire external debt tomorrow, in cash
    26 days ago
  2. Speculation swirls of “Men in Blue” in Crocus City Hall terrorist attack linked to FSB
    1 month ago
  3. Albanians campaign on social media to keep bus bridge created in freak accident
    1 year ago
  4. BRICS announce a blockchain-based payment system to create a common currency
    29 days ago
  5. Saudi Arabia to scale back plans for Neom city
    16 days ago

Reports

Dismiss