Slovak banks raise 2013 GDP growth forecast to 0.8%

By bne IntelliNews July 25, 2013

Slovak banks see the country's economic growth in 2013 at an average of 0.8% in their July forecast, up from 0.7% projected last month, the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) said. NBS polls each month seven selected banks for their calculation on macroeconomic and monetary indicators. Back in November, banks expected the economy to expand by 2% in 2013, but their outlook worsened in line with a deteriorating outlook for foreign demand, as exports are the main driving force of the country's economy. The banks' 2013 GDP growth forecasts ranged from 0.3% to 1.2% this month, the same as in June.

Slovak bank analysts also revised up their average estimate for the economic growth for 2014 to 2.3% in July from 2.2% in June. The range of forecasts narrowed to 1.7%-3% from 1.5%-3.0% last month. Inflation is expected to pick up to about 2.4% next year from about 1.7% this year.

The Slovak finance ministry expects the country's economy to grow by 0.5% this year and NBS sees a GDP growth of 0.6%. The European Commission and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) have projected a 1% GDP growth for Slovakia in 2013, the World Bank expects a 0.7% growth and the International Monetary Fund has forecast a 0.6% expansion. In the first quarter of 2013, Slovakia's annual economic growth slowed slightly down to 0.6% from a 0.7% yearly rise in the previous three months, data from the statistics office showed.

Indicators, banks average forecast Jul-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Jun-13
  for 2013 for 2013 for 2014 for 2014
GDP, y/y % 0.8% 0.7% 2.3% 2.2%
HICP, y/y % 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.3%
Consumer prices, y/y % 1.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.3%
Core inflation, y/y % 1.9% 1.8% 2.3% 2.3%
Producer prices, y/y % 0.4% 1.2% 2.7% 2.5%
Current account balance, EUR mn 2,273.0 2,412.8 2,097.1 2,247.0
Trade balance, EUR mn 4,592.8 4,476.9 4,224.6 4,215.7
Source: National Bank of Slovakia        

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