Slovak banks maintain 2013 GDP growth forecast at 0.8% in August

By bne IntelliNews August 26, 2013

Slovak banks see the country's economic growth in 2013 at an average of 0.8% in their August forecast, at the same level as in the previous month, the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) said. NBS polls each month seven selected banks for their calculation on macroeconomic and monetary indicators. Back in November, banks expected the economy to expand by 2% in 2013, but their estimate worsened in line with a deteriorating outlook for foreign demand, as exports are the main driving force of the country's economy. The banks' 2013 GDP growth forecasts ranged from 0.5% to 1.2% this month, compared to 0.3% to 1.2% in July.

Slovak bank analysts revised down their average estimate for the economic growth for 2014 to 2.2% in August from 2.3% in July, but the range of forecasts remained unchanged at 1.7%-3%. Inflation is expected to pick up to about 2.3% next year from about 1.7% this year.

The Slovak finance ministry expects the country's economy to grow by 0.5% this year and NBS sees a GDP growth of 0.6%. The European Commission and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) have projected a 1% GDP growth for Slovakia in 2013, the World Bank expects a 0.7% growth and the International Monetary Fund has forecast a 0.6% expansion. In the second quarter of 2013, Slovakia's annual economic growth accelerated to 0.9% from a 0.6% yearly rise in the previous three months, preliminary data from the statistics office showed.

Indicators, banks average forecast Aug-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Jul-13
  for 2013 for 2013 for 2014 for 2014
GDP, y/y % 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 2.3%
HICP, y/y % 1.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.4%
Consumer prices, y/y % 1.7% 1.7% 2.3% 2.4%
Core inflation, y/y % 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3%
Producer prices, y/y % 0.4% 0.4% 2.4% 2.7%
Current account balance, EUR mn 2,274.7 2,273.0 2,146.6 2,097.1
Trade balance, EUR mn 4,518.4 4,592.8 4,215.7 4,224.6
Source: National Bank of Slovakia        

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