Serbia's household savings increase 5.7% y/y to 8.4bn at end-Oct 2013

By bne IntelliNews November 25, 2013

Serbian household savings in domestic commercial banks rose 5.7% y/y to RSD 952bn (EUR 8.4bn) as of end-October 2013, quickening from a 5.3% y/y hike the month before, driven by stronger short-term savings growth, central bank data showed. The reading equalled to 25.3% of the full-year GDP forecast, down from 26.6% a year ago, according to IntelliNews calculations.

In monthly terms, household savings inched down 0.4% at end-October, following a 0.2% m/m growth a month earlier.

Short-term savings in both local and foreign currency remained the main driver of Serbia’s household savings growth. They climbed 13.2% to RSD 777bn at end-October quickening from an 11.7% y/y rise at end-September.

Long-term savings, which have been on a steady downward trend since November 2012, retreated 18.1% y/y to RSD 176bn at end-October following a 16.3% y/y contraction at end-September as higher dinar deposits could not offset falling long-term FX savings.

Long-term dinar savings swung to a 12.2% y/y increase at end-October, totalling RSD 1.6bn, snapping a two-year declining streak. The reading was likely supported by falling inflation expectation as the annual CPI slowed to 2.2% in October from 4.9% in September on falling food and transport prices. The share of long-term dinar savings in total long-term savings, however, remained low at just 1.0% at end-October broadly unchanged on the year.

The annual growth of Serb household savings has been faltering since the start of 2013, indicating deteriorating household income and saving capacity. The bulk of the savings (98%) are held in foreign currency as Serb households have preferred to hold savings in euro and other foreign currencies following the hyperinflation in the 1990s. 

Serbia's household savinngs, RSD bn Oct'12 Oct'13 Change,y/y,%
Dinar savings 17.0 24.3 42.6
-- Short term 15.6 22.7 45.3
-- Long-term 1.4 1.6 12.2
FX savings 883.7 927.9 5.0
--Short-term 670.6 753.8 12.4
-- Long-term 213.1 174.1 -18.3
Total household savings 883.7 952.2 7.8
Source: NBS      


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