Serbia's CPI inflation sustained its downward trend, cooling to a still-high 11.2% y/y in March from 12.4% the month before due to slower food, housing and transport price growth, the statistics office stated. Household-related components and alcohol and tobacco prices, however, remained high given the strong private consumption, thus creating price stickiness. In case food prices (34.5% of the index) fall further in the near term—as expected—this will help cut CPI inflation to bring it down within the central bank’s comfort zone of 2.5%-5.5% in 2013. Inflation has been moving above the upper range of the NBS target band since July 2012.
In monthly terms, CPI inflation was 0.0% m/m compared with 0.5% growth in February.
Food costs fell 0.1% m/m in March, helping cut annual growth to 14.8% y/y from 16.6% the month before. Housing and utility charges (13% of the CPI basket) shrank 0.4% m/m, reducing annual expansion to 6.6% y/y in March from 7.2% a month earlier.
Serb state-owned energy producer EPS said earlier this month that electricity prices will not increase before mid-summer. Electricity costs were supposed to rise in Q1 before delaying the hike to April 1 and then May 1.
| Serbia's CPI inflation, y/y,% | Dec'12 | Jan'13 | Feb'13 | Mar'13 | Share in the CPI basket,% |
| Total | 12.2 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 100 |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 15.4 | 18 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 34.5 |
| Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics | 31.7 | 26.7 | 30.7 | 30.6 | 7.8 |
| Clothing and footwear | 4.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 4.6 |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels | 6.9 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 13 |
| Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance | 12.6 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 4.1 |
| Health | 5.8 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 6.4 |
| Transport | 11.5 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 12.3 |
| Source: Statistical office |
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