Serb household savings growth slows to 5.5% y/y at end-April 2013

By bne IntelliNews May 24, 2013

Serbian household savings in domestic commercial banks rose 5.5% y/y to RSD 913bn (EUR 8.2bn) at end-April, cooling from the 8.3% annual increase a month earlier, as short-term foreign currency savings’ growth slowed, central bank data showed.

The end-April savings equalled 24.3% of the 2013 GDP forecast, down from 25.6% of GDP a year earlier, according to IntelliNews calculations. In monthly terms, household savings inched down 1.4% m/m in April after increasing 0.6% a month earlier.

Short-term foreign currency savings have been the main growth engine of household savings annual expansion since end-2012, likely reflecting local dinar currency volatility.  Long-term FX savings have been retreating since November 2012, as the dinar has been gaining ground against the euro since September 2012 due to exports revival and government-subsidised lending. The dinar appreciated by around 2.4% ytd following a 9.0% depreciation in 2012 supported by increased non-residents’ demand for government securities. The recent EC recommendation to start EU accession talks with Serbia also helped.

Dinar savings remained in the red in April, shrinking by 5.6% y/y to RSD 19.3bn, as both long and short term savings contracted. They accounted for only 2% of total household savings. 

Serbia's household savinngs, RSD bn Apr'12 Apr'13 Change,y/y,%
Dinar savings 20.4 19.3 -5.6
-- Short term 18.3 18.0 -1.8
-- Long-term 2.1 1.3 -38.3
FX savings 845.4 894.2 5.8
--Short-term 631.6 726.3 15.0
-- Long-term 213.9 168.0 -21.5
Total household savings 865.8 913.5 5.5
Source: NBS      
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