Russian officials upbeat on GDP, capital outflow for year's end

Russian officials upbeat on GDP, capital outflow for year's end
By bne IntelliNews December 10, 2015

Russian officials are upbeat about key economic indicators in the final weeks of the year, with finance and economics chiefs putting a brighter spin on results after the gloomy prognoses of the spring.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on December 10 his ministry expects Russia's capital outflow will not exceed $60bn at end-2015. Siluanov noted that the current projection is almost half the initially projected outflow figure of more than $110bn, cut to $70bn in November, and praised the much improved outlook as a "measure of our activities in the budget policy sphere".

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) also said provisional net capital outflow for January-November stood at $53bn, almost halving from last year's total.

On December 9, Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev also improved the full-year GDP contraction forecast from the previous 3.9% to 3.7% recession.

GDP already contracted by 3.7% in January-September, according to the latest dynamics report published on December 10. In Q3 alone, GDP decline was confirmed at the previously estimated 4.1% y/y, which outperformed the government's forecast and was met positively by experts.

As the Russian economy finally bottoms out, Ulyukayev declared at a meeting with EU diplomats in late November that "the recession in Russian economy is officially over".

Crucially too, the run rate of inflation has fallen back to the long-term average of 0.7%, from a point in late 2014 when it was was growing by over 3 percentage points per month.

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