Russia’s total oil output inched up by 0.8% y/y to 346.8mn tonnes in Jan-Aug 2013, a report by RosStat shows. In Jan-Aug domestic oil refining increased by 3% y/y to 185mn tonnes, while oil exports declined by 1.7% y/y to 155.6mn tonnes (44.9% of total oil output being exported). The growth rate of output and exports maintained a negative trend, but improved slightly as compared to Q1/13. Domestic refining slowed down from over 4% y/y growth seen in 2012.

In August 2013 actual average oil exports price went up by 2.6% m/m to USD 736.9 per tonne, while average global price of Urals blend oil increased by 2.7% m/m to USD 811.1 per tonne. In Jan-Aug weight of oil exports in total Russia’s exports was 33.2% and weight of oil exports in the total exports of fuels and energy sources was 46.7% (34.9% and 49.5% a year ago).

Russia’s total oil output increased by 0.9% y/y to 516.8mn tonnes in 2012. To compare, Russia’s total oil output declined by 0.7% y/y to 487.6mn tonnes in 2008, went up by 1.2% y/y to 493.7mn tonnes in 2009, went up by 2.1% y/y to 504.9mn tonnes in 2010, and inched up by 0.8% y/y to 509.4mn in 2011. In 2012 domestic oil refining increased by 4.9% y/y to 270mn tonnes, while oil exports declined by 1.8% y/y to 239.9mn tonnes (46.4% of total oil output).

This month, Minister of Energy Alexander Novak told the press that oil output in Russia in 2013 is expected at 520mn tonnes. By 2020 the output is expected at 535mn tonnes. According to previous estimates by the ministry by 2030 output of 530mn-540mn tonnes can be made possible only through launching exploration projects on continental shelf and other hard-to-access fields such as Bazhenov formation in Siberia.

At the same time International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest monthly report estimated that USA could become the largest non-OPEC producer of hydrocarbons by Q2/14, surpassing Russia.