Russia’s investment, base sectors and retail trade continuously weak in August.

By bne IntelliNews September 19, 2013

RosStat’s report on August base sectors and other fundamental indicators shows the continuation of the negative stagnation trend seen in H1. Capital investment continued to be negative: declining by 4% y/y in August alone and by 1.3% y/y in Jan-Aug overall (vs. EconMin’s expectations of 2.4% growth in 2013). Industrial output continued to fluctuate around 0% growth, inching up by 0.1% y/y in August.

Transportation in August ended two consecutive months of negative y//y growth posting 0.3% y/y increase in turnover. This is unlikely to result in higher industrial output in the early fall: railway transportation was still in decline of 2% y/y in August and 2.8% y/y in Jan-Aug overall. Slight growth of transportation in August is to be attributed to pipelines (up by 3.7% y/y in August, 1.3% y/y in Jan-Aug).

After jumping to 6% y/y growth due to favorable y/y base in July, in August construction declined by 3.1% y/y. Also retail trade, which throughout 2013 was the only resilient base sector slowed down: from 4.3% y/y in July to 4% y/y in August. Agriculture (which was previously cited by the authorities as one of the main factors that were supposed to support recovery in H2/13) also slowed down to 3.3% y/y growth. 

 

Base Industries (%, y/y)

2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec-12 Jan-13 June Aug
  Industry -9.3% 8.2% 4.7% 2.6% 1.4% -0.8% -0.7% 0.1%
  Construction -13.2% -0.6% 5.1% 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 6.1% -3.1%
  Agriculture 1.2% -21.9% 23.0% -4.7% 1.4% 2.5% 5.8% 3.3%
  Transport -10.1% 6.9% 3.4% 1.7% 0.9% -0.7% -1.1% 0.3%
  Retail -5.5% 6.3% 7.2% 5.9% 5.0% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0%
  Source: RosStat                

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