Industrial production declined by 1% y/y and by 0.4% m/m in November, the data by RosStat shows. Since a decline of 1.4% y/y seen in May, the growth of the indicator was close to zero. November’s 1% y/y decline is worse than the expectations by the EconMin that counted on industry’s recovery towards the end of the year. However, EconMin’s forecast for this year is still very moderate: 0.1% industrial output growth in 2013 recently revised from 0.7% y/y.
In Jan-Nov overall, industrial production remained stagnant at -0.1% y/y vs. 2.7% y/y growth seen for the same period of last year. According to the previous report, in Q3 industrial output was down by 0.1% y/y vs. 2.5% y/y growth for the same quarter of last year.
Industrial production was expected to bounce slightly from a decline in May. However, poor external demand, weak domestic spending, stalled investment and lately also uncertainty on how the government is going to address the current slowdown contributed to more pessimistic expectations. Since the end of H1/13 the industry balances between stagnation and recession.
In Jan-Nov, only extraction industries posted growth of 1.2% y/y (picking up slightly from 1% y/y in H1/12). Manufacturing and utilities industries contracted by 0.6% y/y and 0.7% y/y respectively. Oil extraction gained 0.7% y/y, natural gas extraction went up by 2.4% y/y, and coal mining declined by 3% y/y in Jan-Nov.
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