Federal budget surplus is estimated at RUB 608.7bn (USD 18.8bn) or 1.1% of GDP in Jan-Oct, according to flash estimates by FinMin. In H1/13 revised federal budget deficit was estimated at RUB 367.9bn or 1.2% of GDP. In October 2013 alone federal budget surplus stood at RUB 102bn or 1.8% of GDP.
To compare, in Jan-Oct 2012, budget surplus amounted to RUB 716.8bn or 1.4% of GDP, declining by 49% y/y. In 2012 federal budget was closed with RUB 12.8bn deficit or 0.02% of GDP.
In Jan-Oct 2013 federal budget revenues stood at RUB 10.74tn (83.5% of target for 2013). Budget spending was RUB 10.13tn (75.7% of target for 2013). It must be noted that budget spending usually soars abruptly in the end of the fourth quarter of the year. In 2013, the federal budget deficit is targeted at 0.7% of GDP. At the same time the non-oil and gas deficit will remain high in 2013 at 10.3% of GDP.
FinMin previously raised the federal budget deficit target from previous 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.6% of GDP in 2014-2016, respectively, to 0.6%, 1%, and 0.6%. Due to weakening economic growth budget revenues in 2014 are expected to decline by RUB 500bn or 0.5% of GDP in 2014 and RUB 1.1tn or 0.6% of GDP in 2015.
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