According to the data by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), surplus of foreign trade of goods decreased by 9.1% y/y to USD 146.8bn in Jan-Oct. Exports from Russia in Jan-Oct declined by 2% y/y to USD 426.7bn.
In October alone, trade balance lost 16% m/m and 11% y/y. This follows a 0.3% y/y slip seen in September and 16% y/y and 22.5% y/y increase of the balance seen in and July and August, after thirteen consecutive months of posting y/y decrease. Exports in October declined by 5.5% y/y and imports decreased by 2.9% y/y, amounting to USD 44bn and USD 30.8bn, respectively.
While exports where posting slight y/y growth in Jun-Sep, October’s data shows that the general negative trend did not get reversed. The y/y growth of the trade balance in July, August, and September, was attributed to the base effect.
In 2012 foreign trade surplus growth declined by 2.2% y/y to USD 193.8bn. The surplus growth rate previously slowed down throughout 2012 and 2011: to compare, the surplus increased by 10.2% y/y in H1/12, 26% y/y in Q1/12, 19% y/y in H1/11, and 31% y/y in 2011. Exports in 2012 made up USD 529.3bn increasing by weak 1.4% y/y, while imports increased by 3.6% y/y to USD 335.4bn.
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