Russia’s CB: Goods foreign trade surplus down by 12% y/y in Jan-July, exports shrink 2.8% y/y.

By bne IntelliNews September 12, 2013

According to the data by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), surplus of foreign trade of goods decreased by 12% y/y to USD 119.6bn in Jan-July 2013. Exports in Jan-July declined by 2.78% y/y to USD 304.4bn.

In July alone trade balance declined by 2.5% m/m, but picked up by 15.5% y/y after thirteen consecutive months of posting y/y decrease. Exports in July inched up by 5.5% y/y and imports increased by 1.6% y/y, amounting to USD 43.5bn and USD 30.14bn, respectively.

The general negative trend for exports did not get reversed in July and the 15.5% y/y growth of the trade balance in the reporting month is to be attributed to the base effect. In July and August 2012 the trade balance dropped by 20.5% y/y and 21.6% y/y.  

To remind, in 2012 foreign trade surplus growth declined by 2.2% y/y to USD 193.8bn. The surplus growth rate previously slowed down throughout 2012 and 2011: to compare, the surplus increased by 10.2% y/y in H1/12, 26% y/y in Q1/12, 19% y/y in H1/11, and 31% y/y in 2011. Exports in 2012 made up USD 529.3bn increasing by weak 1.4% y/y, while imports increased by 3.6% y/y to USD 335.4bn. Foreign trade surplus increased by 31% y/y in 2011 to USD 198.8bn vs. USD 151.62bn in 2010 and USD 111.6bn surplus in 2009.

RosStat’s estimates published previously showed that foreign trade surplus decreased by 15% y/y in Jan-June 2013, the surplus amounting to USD 91.6bn, data in a report by RosStat shows. The decline rate of the surplus slowed down somewhat after 18% y/y decline seen in Jan-May and remained the same as 15% y/y decline seen in Q1/13.

Exports in Jan-June 2013 declined by 3.8% y/y to USD 252.5bn, while imports went up by 4.4% y/y to USD 160.9bn. To compare, exports in 2012 made up USD 529.3bn increasing by weak 1.4% y/y, while imports increased by 3.6% y/y to USD 335.4bn.

Exports of fuels and energy sources as usual accounted for most of Russia’s exports in Jan-June (71.3% of total) going down by 2.4% y/y (down by 5.6% y/y in Jan-May). Out of that exports of crude oil amounted for 33.1% of total exports (down by strong 8.3% y/y) and exports of natural gas to 12.6% of total exports (flat y/y). It must be noted that y/y growth rates of both oil and gas are in consistent decline since H2/12, dragging overall exports growth rate down as well. Exports of metals and metal products that accounted for 8.1% of Russia’s exports in Jan-June dropping by 14.7% y/y. 

Related Articles

Fitch upgrades Russia's outlook to positive

Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on Russia's long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Positive from Stable, while affirming the rating at 'BBB-', the agency said on ... more

Erdogan warns Iraqi Kurds will lose “opportunities” if independence vote proceeds

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned the Iraqi Kurds that it is in their interests to call off their planned September 25 independence referendum because it “may lead to a process that ... more

Russia’s Rosneft mulls Kurdistan-Turkey-Europe gas pipeline

Russia’s Rosneft is exploring the possibility of building a 30bn cubic metre (bcm) pipeline that would from 2020 deliver natural gas supplies from the Iraqi Kurdistan region to Turkey and ... more