Russia meets Opec oil production cut target

Russia meets Opec oil production cut target
Russia meets Opec production cut of 300,000 barrels a day / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews July 24, 2017

Russia has met the production cut target agreed with Opec in May and produced 300,000 less barrels of oil than in October, just after the agreement was signed, according to Energy Minister Alexander Novak, reports TASS.

Russia and the oil-producing cartel extended the output cut deal for another nine months from July 1 to end of March 2018, without changing the terms of the deal.

The major oil producers are hoping to cut production to keep prices around $50, which is a big boon to the Russian budget. This year the budget plan is for a 2.1% federal budget deficit, which the government should be able to finance entirely from domestic borrowing slated at RUB1.2 trillion for each of the next years.

However, the State Duma legislature just adopted amendments to the budget that keep the very conservative $40 average price for oil in place, and will automatically restrict the government’s ability to spend, due to the so-called fiscal rule. Oil was trading at $47 at the time of writing and has consistently been around $50 for much of this year.

Opec will welcome the announcement but the deal is starting to unravel. Saudi Arabia announced earlier this month that it had produced more than agreed and other countries like Iran, Nigeria and Libya are outside the deal and also increasing production this year.

A Russia ministerial committee was due to discuss growing oil output in Libya and Nigeria on July 24, said Novak, who is urging these countries to join the Opec deal.

“Of course, we shall discuss the current situations in all the countries, including Libya and Nigeria,” he said.

Opec Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told reporters that the delegations from Libya and Nigeria had at a meeting on July 22 presented all the figures and production plans, which correspond to the problems those countries are facing.

Despite cheap equity valuations and the economy’s reduced exposure to hydrocarbon vulnerability, Russian stock prices will remain dominated by the gloomy outlook for oil prices, argues Chris Weafer, co-founder of Macro Advisers in his recent bne IntelliNews column.

However, Russia is slowly attempting to wean itself of oil and its share in federal budget revenues has fallen from 50% to between 35% and 40% this year. Moreover, the budget used to break even at a price of $115 per barrel and now breaks even at about $70.
 

 

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