Romanias exports up 1.4% y/y in October.

By bne IntelliNews December 11, 2012
Romania's exports increased 1.4% y/y to EUR 4.2bn in October, the country's statistics office said in a statement. Exports shrank by 3% y/y in Q3, weakening for a first time after nearly three years of robust expansion. The outlook for next year remains bleak considering the fact that exports will probably stagnate in 2012. In the year-to-date period, exports edged down by 0.3% y/y to EUR 37.7bn. The state forecasting body projects a small 0.2% y/y advance for the full year, followed by a 6.1% y/y rise in 2013 and annual growth rates of 8-9% in the next three years. Nonetheless, the demand for Romanian goods in Europe - where roughly 70% of the country's exports are sent, has visibly diminished after the EU GDP declined for two consecutive quarters. Romania's exports to non-EU countries have been more resilient recently than those to Europe, as they increased by 1.8% y/y in Q3 when exports to the EU area dropped by 5.4% y/y. Nonetheless, a sustainable and robust expansion to higher-growing countries is not visible and Romania's exports will continue to depend on Europe. The exports in the past 12 months ending in October edged slightly up but remained close to EUR 45bn - which is 31.5% above the best pre-crisis level of the rolling 12-month exports reached in October 2008. The 12-month rolling exports have stagnated since the beginning of the year.
2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Oct-12
FOB Exports 33,725 29,084 37,368 45,086 11,041 11,275 11,134 4,195
FOB exp. %, y/y 15% -14% 28% 21% 0% 2% -3% 1.4%
CIF Imports 57,240 38,953 46,902 54,826 12,741 14,039 13,718 5,306
CIF imp. %, y/y 12% -32% 20% 17% 1% -1% -1% 8%
FOB Imports* 52,834 35,955 44,968 52,565 12,216 13,460 13,152 5,088
FOB/FOB Balance* -19,109 -6,870 -7,600 -7,479 -1,175 -2,184 -2,018 -892
Balance %, y/y* 9% -64% 11% -2% 21% -12% 11% 54%
Source: INS, *IntelliNews estimates

Romanias exports up 1.4% y/y in October.

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