Romania's exports increased 1.4% y/y to EUR 4.2bn in October, the country's statistics office said in a statement. Exports shrank by 3% y/y in Q3, weakening for a first time after nearly three years of robust expansion. The outlook for next year remains bleak considering the fact that exports will probably stagnate in 2012. In the year-to-date period, exports edged down by 0.3% y/y to EUR 37.7bn. The state forecasting body projects a small 0.2% y/y advance for the full year, followed by a 6.1% y/y rise in 2013 and annual growth rates of 8-9% in the next three years. Nonetheless, the demand for Romanian goods in Europe - where roughly 70% of the country's exports are sent, has visibly diminished after the EU GDP declined for two consecutive quarters. Romania's exports to non-EU countries have been more resilient recently than those to Europe, as they increased by 1.8% y/y in Q3 when exports to the EU area dropped by 5.4% y/y. Nonetheless, a sustainable and robust expansion to higher-growing countries is not visible and Romania's exports will continue to depend on Europe. The exports in the past 12 months ending in October edged slightly up but remained close to EUR 45bn - which is 31.5% above the best pre-crisis level of the rolling 12-month exports reached in October 2008. The 12-month rolling exports have stagnated since the beginning of the year.
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