Romanian stats office broadly confirms Q2 GDP data including 1.5% y/y advance

By bne IntelliNews October 8, 2013

Romania’s GDP increased by a real 1.5% y/y in the second quarter of the year and advanced by 0.5% q/q in seasonally-adjusted terms, the statistics office reported, confirming earlier estimates. The GDP thus increased by 1.8% y/y in the first half of 2013.

This second preliminary estimate confirms the overall figure released in September under the first estimate and only marginally corrects the detailed structure. The growth rate is expected to further accelerate in the year driven by external demand and record agriculture crops.

As revealed by the September data and confirmed this week, Romania’s GDP was driven by external demand while domestic consumption has stagnated and investments shrank significantly.

The contribution of net exports to the GDP growth was 6.1pps – offset by the domestic demand. However, the revised data reveal slightly milder picture of shrinking domestic demand meaning that the consumption’s contribution to the GDP growth was 0.2pps [from 0.1pps under the first estimate] and the negative contribution of gross fixed capital formation was only 0.7pps [compared to 1pps under the first estimate]. 

Consumption edged up by 0.3% y/y in Q2, while the gross fixed capital formation shrank by 2.9% y/y. The shrinkage in the stock of inventory was, however, steeper than initially estimated and the impact on the GDP growth was a negative 2.8pps vs. a negative 2.5pps previously estimated.

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