Romanian President Klaus Iohannis must dismiss the iconic head of the National Anticorruption Directorate (DNA) Laura Codruta Kovesi, the country’s Constitutional Court ruled on May 30. 

Romania’s political outlook deteriorated significantly after the ruling. Unless Iohannis and Romania’s Western partners, who have so far backed Kovesi’s work, take a pragmatic approach and negotiate the appointment of a politically unbiased DNA head, the political crisis can become prolonged and have a major economic impact. 

No immediate decision is expected within the coming days from Iohannis, and the June 8 court’s decision in the case of majority leader Liviu Dragnea will play a major role in future political developments. Should the court decide not to convict Dragnea, the need for reforms both within the DNA and outside the DNA with the purpose of tackling the systemic corruption will become even more evident.

Kovesi’s years at the helm of the DNA were marked by ever-increasing numbers of prosecutions, including of top level government officials. This earned the DNA praise from international bodies such as the European Commission but Kovesi has been under increasing pressure from the government to step down. 

Her expected dismissal leaves the DNA in a delicate situation, amid a scandal related to its protocols with the intelligence services, the alleged fabrication of evidence at the Ploiesti local office and a failure to secure convictions for high-profile officials in recent cases starting with the collapse of one of Romania’s biggest ever corruption cases (dubbed the Microsoft case) on a technicality.

The government led by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) has long been seeking to remove Kovesi, under whose leadership numerous corruption probes were launched into party members. Iohannis has until now blocked attempts to remove the DNA head, announcing on April 16 that he was rejecting a request from the justice minister to dismiss Kovesi.

However, the Constitutional Court decided on May 30 by six votes to three that Iohannis must endorse the government’s request and dismiss Kovesi by decree, according to a press release from the court.

“[T]he President of Romania refused to issue the decree of dismissal of the chief prosecutor of the National Anticorruption Directorate on grounds of opportunity and not of legality, which created a deadlock in the exercise of the Minister of Justice's authority over the activity of prosecutors,” the release reads.

The president of Romania, under the provisions of Article 94 (c) of the Constitution, does not have a discretionary power within the revocation procedure but a power to verify its regularity, the court added.

“[T]he Court, having regard to its case law, has also established the constitutional conduct to be followed, namely the issuance by the President of Romania of the decree of dismissal of the Chief Prosecutor of the National Anticorruption Directorate, Ms. Laura Codruta Kövesi,” it concluded.

The Constitutional Court has not yet issued the motivation for its decision, which becomes mandatory for the president only after it is published in the Official Journal. There is no legal deadline for the president to comply with the Constitutional Court’s ruling. Failing to comply with court’s ruling can, however, be interpreted by lawmakers as breaching the Constitution. They would thus be given an opportunity to suspend the president from his post — a long procedure involving a public referendum.

The ruling coalition is now likely to capitalise on the situation and intensify its rhetoric against what it says are abuses committed by the DNA. The coalition is in the process of fully revising the country’s justice laws. 

Previous attempts to weaken Romania’s anticorruption fight have sparked mass protests. However the numbers of people taking to the streets have tailed off recently, and never again reached the hundreds of thousands seen in early 2017.

Nonetheless, the political turmoil anticipated after the May 30 ruling might spill over and have an economic impact should the president refuse to dismiss Kovesi, thus triggering a lengthy political crisis that would include the ruling coalition’s attempts to suspend Iohannis from his post and massive street protests. 

This is a radical scenario suggested by statements from the leaders of Romania’s fragile and divided political opposition, but Iohannis has not commented yet. Under the scenario of a prolonged political crisis, the ruling coalition led by the PSD can be expected to continue its populist measures in an attempt to gain popular support, triggering uncontrolled inflation and a weakening of the national currency. Foreign direct investments have historically demonstrated more resilience to such political shocks.

The more optimistic scenario includes a quick dismissal of Kovesi (who might even resign to shorten the procedures) and the opening of negotiations for the appointment of a politically unbiased new head of the DNA under the supervision of the European Union.

Opposition leaders, meanwhile, took unrealistically radical positions against the Constitutional Court.

"It takes the form of a coup d’etat. The Constitutional Court does not have the capacity to impose decisions on the president of Romania,” the head of the country’s largest opposition party, the National Liberal Party, Ludovic Orban, stated. Orban argued that the president is the most legitimate elected authority and therefore he cannot be forced to make a decision against the will of the people who gave him the mandate. He accused Constitutional Court members of having “violated the Constitution”.

Dacian Ciolos, former European commissioner and former prime minister of a government of technocrats  (2015-2016), who has since set up a political party, claims that the Constitutional Court members were wrong when deciding the government has the power to dismiss Kovesi, and suggests that they should be appointed by a different procedure.

“The “judges” of the Constitutional Court take political reasoning as legal reasoning” Ciolos stated. He argued that the magistrates’ body CSM, which gave a negative consultative view to government’s move against Kovesi, is the true authority that can make final decisions.