Romania's bank analyst association, AAFBR, expects that the central bank will cut today, March 28, the monetary policy interest rate by 25bps to 5.25%, news agency Mediafax reported. Some 92% of the analysts are in favour of this scenario. The central bank reduced the interest rate to its current level from end-2011's 6.5% within several months only, but the bank analysts do not expect a lot of rate cuts in the next couple of years. The end-year policy interest rate would remain around 5% in 2012 and 2013, according to the poll quoted by Mediafax. The range of expectations is 5-5.25% for the end of 2012 and it widens to 4-5.75% for 2013. The bank analysts expect that the central bank would not decide to cut the required reserve ratio at this week's meeting. Some 77% of the polled analysts ruled out the scenario of a mandatory reserves cut. However, the reserves ratio for local currency liabilities would decline to 12% at end-2012 and 10% at end-2013 from current 15%, according to their expectations. The reserves ratio for forex liabilities would decline slower to only 15% at the end of 2013, while remaining at the current 20% level by the end of 2012. |
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