Romanian bank analysts expect monetary policy rate cut to 5.25% on March 28.

By bne IntelliNews March 28, 2012
Romania's bank analyst association, AAFBR, expects that the central bank will cut today, March 28, the monetary policy interest rate by 25bps to 5.25%, news agency Mediafax reported. Some 92% of the analysts are in favour of this scenario. The central bank reduced the interest rate to its current level from end-2011's 6.5% within several months only, but the bank analysts do not expect a lot of rate cuts in the next couple of years. The end-year policy interest rate would remain around 5% in 2012 and 2013, according to the poll quoted by Mediafax. The range of expectations is 5-5.25% for the end of 2012 and it widens to 4-5.75% for 2013. The bank analysts expect that the central bank would not decide to cut the required reserve ratio at this week's meeting. Some 77% of the polled analysts ruled out the scenario of a mandatory reserves cut. However, the reserves ratio for local currency liabilities would decline to 12% at end-2012 and 10% at end-2013 from current 15%, according to their expectations. The reserves ratio for forex liabilities would decline slower to only 15% at the end of 2013, while remaining at the current 20% level by the end of 2012.

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