Romania’s industrial production index soared 18.9% y/y in April, exceeding all expectations, data from the statistics office indicated on June 11. The bright industrial turnover data and the exports expansion announced earlier this week prepared the ground for a steep rise, though nothing of this scale was anticipated.
The rise was driven by exports, the bigger number of workdays this year [compared to April 2012] and the sharp expansion in the automobile production [mainly for export]. Part of the rise was due to the Easter celebrations in April 2012 [hence low base effects] and will be predictably offset by lower industrial performance in May 2013 – when the Easter holiday followed the Labour Day and as a result the government decided to announce a couple of other days off to link the holidays.
Nonetheless, part of the growth was driven by genuine acceleration of industrial activity.
The expansion in the core manufacturing sector was even stronger - 21.9% y/y.
Adjusted for the workdays the rise remain impressive - at 8.5% y/y for the industry in total and 15.6% y/y for manufacturing. We typically do not find relevant the annual comparison for workday-adjusted series, but this time it is particularly meaningful since it corrects the wide discrepancy in workdays due to the Easter holiday.
Earlier in Q1, industrial output expanded by 4.7% y/y – and by 6.1% y/y in the manufacturing area.
The seasonally-adjusted index increased by 1.9% m/m in April for overall production but surged by 9.6% m/m in the manufacturing sector.
The production of automobiles and other transport means particularly gained ground in May – namely by 37-39% y/y.
|Industrial Production Index||2008||2009||2010||2011||2012||Q113||Apr-13|
|Total, swda* q/q, m/m||n.a.||n.a.||n.a.||n.a.||n.a.||2.6%||1.9%|
|Mining and Quarrying||0.0%||-12.0%||-6.9%||3.4%||9.9%||5.6%||12.3%|
|Source: INS swda = seasonally, workday adjusted|
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