Romania’s industrial output down 2.1% y/y in May on Easter holiday effects

By bne IntelliNews July 10, 2013

Romania’s industrial production index decreased by 2.1% y/y in May – when the activity in power generation and utilities area plunged by 16.2% y/y, the statistics office reported. A month earlier the output surged by 19.9% y/y [revised data]. The activity in the core manufacturing sector edged down slightly by 0.9% y/y in May after soaring 23.1% y/y in April.

The high volatility of industrial production was caused by the different timing and number of non-working days for the Easter holidays – not fully captured by the workday-adjustments of the statistics office. The activity shifted from May [Easter/Labour Day holidays] to April was visibly more than implied by the different workdays. Workday-adjusted industrial production still decreased by 1.2% y/y in May after a massive 11.5% y/y surge in April.

Notably, the industrial activity accelerated in the combined period of Apr-May compared to full Q1. Depending on June results, the second quarter’s industrial performance will most likely improve from Q1 – notably in the manufacturing sector. In the energy and utilities sector the activity, however, keeps losing ground.

The industrial output increased by 8.2% y/y in Apr-May, accelerating from the 4.7% y/y growth rate in Q1. In the core manufacturing sector, the annual growth rate moved in the two-digit area [10.2% y/y] in Apr-May from the 6.1% y/y level in Q1. On the opposite, the activity loses ground more markedly in the energy and utilities area – where the industrial activity contracted by 9.8% y/y in Apr-May from a slower 5.3% annual contraction in Q1.

  2010 2011 2012 Q113 Apr-13 May-13 Apr-May
Total, y/y 5.5% 7.5% 2.4% 4.7% 19.9% -2.1% 8.2%
Total, swda* q/q, m/m n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.6% 4.7% -10.7% n.a.
o/w manufacturing n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.8% 11.6% -14.2% n.a.
Mining and Quarrying -6.9% 3.4% 9.9% 5.6% 12.3% 5.0% 8.6%
Manufacturing 6.0% 8.0% 2.2% 6.1% 23.1% -0.9% 10.2%
Utilities 8.2% 4.6% 1.6% -5.3% -3.4% -16.2% -9.8%
Source: INS *seasonally and workday-adjusted              

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