Romania's GDP up 3.5% in 2013 – preliminary data

By bne IntelliNews March 5, 2014

Romania’s GDP increased by 3.5% in full 2013 after expanding by 5.2% y/y in the fourth quarter alone, the statistics office announced under its first preliminary estimate. The nominal GDP was RON 631.13bn, or EUR 142.8bn calculated at the year’s average exchange rate.

The seasonally-adjusted Q4 GDP was only 1% below its peak pre-crisis level reached in Q3 2008. For full 2013, the GDP was still 1.8% below the pre-crisis peak reached in 2008.

The statement confirms the flash estimates issued last month and supplementary indicates that the industry, along with the farmers’ bumper crop, has significantly contributed to the GDP expansion in 2013 and particularly in Q4, on the formation side.

VERY STRONG CONTRIBUTION MADE BY INDUSTRY

In particular, the industry contributed 2.3pps to the 3.5% GDP increase in 2013 and 3.5pps to the 5.2% y/y GDP growth in Q4. The value added generated by the sector expanded by 12.6% y/y in Q4 and by 8.1% in full 2013. The sector increased its share in total GDP to 30% from 28% in 2012.

The farmers’ large grains and oilseeds crop pushed up the value added generated in the agriculture by 38.2% y/y in Q4 and by 23.4% on average in 2013. The sector’s contribution to total GDP inched up to 5.6% last year from 5.3% in 2012.

The sectors of constructions and services made marginal contributions, of +/-0.1pps, to the overall GDP in both Q4 and the full year.

On the utilisation side, final consumption has picked up by 1% y/y in Q4 contributing to the still very modest 0.3% expansion in full year. Gross fixed capital formation performed particularly disappointing, contracting by 10.8% y/y in Q4 and by 5.7% in full year.

The GDP growth was supported, on the utilisation side, almost entirely by the external demand. Exports expanded by 12.8% y/y [up 13.7% y/y in Q4], while imports increased by only 2.3% y/y [up 4.6% y/y in Q4]. Net exports remained in the deficit area – however with only 0.6% of GDP in 2013, down from 4.7% of GDP in 2012.

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