Romania’s GDP to lose up to 0.6% this year if EU sets tough sanctions against Russia

By bne IntelliNews April 24, 2014

The impact of tough economic sanctions set by the EU against Russia is estimated at 0.6% on Romania’s GDP this year and at 0.3% in 2015, under the most radical scenario drafted by the EC, HotNews informed, quoting a leaked document sent by the Commission to the government in Bucharest. This would depress the country’s economic growth to 1.7% this year and 2.2% in 2015.

The Commission has reportedly drafted three scenarios, based on mild, moderate and tough economic sanctions to be set against Russia, and confidentially informed national governments before any such decisions are taken. The scenarios evaluate the impact on the economic growth, exports and imports.

Based on the position of each country, the Commission will draft a document to be used for deciding on further joint EU-level, or national, sanctions against Russia in case the latter intensifies its pressures against Ukraine, HotNews comments quoting unnamed government sources.

Under the moderate sanctions scenario, the negative impact on Romania’s GDP would be of 0.3% this year and 0.1% in 2015. The weak sanctions scenario would only diminish this year’s GDP by 0.1%, while keeping the 2015 GDP unaffected.

Under its baseline scenario, the EC expects Romania’s GDP to increase by 2.3% this year and by 2.5% in 2015 after last year’s 3.5% GDP advance driven partly by the agriculture.

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