Romania’s statistics office has revised its estimate for Q2 GDP growth to 3.4%, under the second provisional data, from 3.3% y/y under the first provisional data.

It is another marginal upward revision from the 3.2% flash estimate on August 14, but the revised figure is still below the expectations of above 4%, previously expressed by bank analysts.

GDP increased by 3.8% y/y in H1 (revised from 3.7% y/y), after a 4.3% y/y advance in Q1. The quarterly rise of the seasonally-adjusted GDP was confirmed at 0.1% q/q for Q2.

The main revisions for Q2 GDP data, compared to the first provisional data issued on September 4, are on the utilisation side. Specifically, consumption has increased at a slower rate than initially estimated (4.5% y/y compared to 4.8% initially) and gross fix capital formation were stronger. Gross fix capital formation has advanced by 9.7% y/y the statistics office calculated, compared to a 7.9% y/y initial estimate.

Also, exports have increased at a significantly more robust rate and as a result the trade net exports moved to the positive area from the negative region under the first provisional data. Exports of goods and services surged in volume terms by 8.1% y/y in Q2, under the second provisional estimate, compared to only 4.1% y/y under the first estimate.

The rise in imports was also revised upwards, from 7.8% y/y to 9.8% y/y.

The decrease in inventory was sharper than initially estimated, and this compensated most of the upward revision in the consumption, gross capital formation and net exports.