Romania revises Q2 GDP growth to 3.4%, from 3.3%

By bne IntelliNews October 8, 2015

Romania’s statistics office has revised its estimate for Q2 GDP growth to 3.4%, under the second provisional data, from 3.3% y/y under the first provisional data.

It is another marginal upward revision from the 3.2% flash estimate on August 14, but the revised figure is still below the expectations of above 4%, previously expressed by bank analysts.

GDP increased by 3.8% y/y in H1 (revised from 3.7% y/y), after a 4.3% y/y advance in Q1. The quarterly rise of the seasonally-adjusted GDP was confirmed at 0.1% q/q for Q2.

The main revisions for Q2 GDP data, compared to the first provisional data issued on September 4, are on the utilisation side. Specifically, consumption has increased at a slower rate than initially estimated (4.5% y/y compared to 4.8% initially) and gross fix capital formation were stronger. Gross fix capital formation has advanced by 9.7% y/y the statistics office calculated, compared to a 7.9% y/y initial estimate.

Also, exports have increased at a significantly more robust rate and as a result the trade net exports moved to the positive area from the negative region under the first provisional data. Exports of goods and services surged in volume terms by 8.1% y/y in Q2, under the second provisional estimate, compared to only 4.1% y/y under the first estimate.

The rise in imports was also revised upwards, from 7.8% y/y to 9.8% y/y.

The decrease in inventory was sharper than initially estimated, and this compensated most of the upward revision in the consumption, gross capital formation and net exports.

  % of GDP % of GDP contr to CGP y/y change contr to CGP y/y change
  Provisional (1) Provisional (2) Provisional (1) Provisional (2)
Total final consumption 80.1 79.4 3.8 3.6
    Actual individual consumption of households 72.3 72.2 3.8 3.5
       Final consumption expenditure of
64.6 64.8 3.8 3.5
       Final consumption expenditure of
       Non-profit institutions serving households
1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0
       Individual final consumption expenditure
       of General government
6.7 6.3 0.0 0.0
    Collective final consumption expenditure
    of General government
7.8 7.2 0.0 0.1
Gross fixed capital formation 20.7 21.4 1.6 2.0
Change in inventories -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4
Net export -0.6 0.1 -1.6 -0.8
    Export of goods and services 42.6 44.9 1.8 3.4
    Import of goods and services 43.2 44.8 3.4 4.2
Gross domestic product 100.0 100.0 3.3 3.4
Source: INS        

Related Articles

Former Romanian PM Ciolos to found political party

Romania’s former prime minister Dacian Ciolos, who headed a cabinet of technocrats in 2015-2016, has announced plans to found a political party based on his Romania 100 civic platform. Ciolos plans ... more

EC to sue Bulgaria, Romania for failing to adopt copyright legislation

The European Commission said that will refer Bulgaria and Romania, along with Luxembourg and Spain, to the Court of Justice of the EU as they have failed to notify ... more

Kingfisher takes on Romanian DIY market leader Dedeman with Praktiker acquisition

Brico Depot Romania, owned by UK-based DIY and home improvement products retailer Kingfisher, has completed the acquisition of its peer Praktiker Romania, local media reported on December 4. The ... more