Romania revises Q2 GDP growth to 3.4%, from 3.3%

By bne IntelliNews October 8, 2015

Romania’s statistics office has revised its estimate for Q2 GDP growth to 3.4%, under the second provisional data, from 3.3% y/y under the first provisional data.

It is another marginal upward revision from the 3.2% flash estimate on August 14, but the revised figure is still below the expectations of above 4%, previously expressed by bank analysts.

GDP increased by 3.8% y/y in H1 (revised from 3.7% y/y), after a 4.3% y/y advance in Q1. The quarterly rise of the seasonally-adjusted GDP was confirmed at 0.1% q/q for Q2.

The main revisions for Q2 GDP data, compared to the first provisional data issued on September 4, are on the utilisation side. Specifically, consumption has increased at a slower rate than initially estimated (4.5% y/y compared to 4.8% initially) and gross fix capital formation were stronger. Gross fix capital formation has advanced by 9.7% y/y the statistics office calculated, compared to a 7.9% y/y initial estimate.

Also, exports have increased at a significantly more robust rate and as a result the trade net exports moved to the positive area from the negative region under the first provisional data. Exports of goods and services surged in volume terms by 8.1% y/y in Q2, under the second provisional estimate, compared to only 4.1% y/y under the first estimate.

The rise in imports was also revised upwards, from 7.8% y/y to 9.8% y/y.

The decrease in inventory was sharper than initially estimated, and this compensated most of the upward revision in the consumption, gross capital formation and net exports.

  % of GDP % of GDP contr to CGP y/y change contr to CGP y/y change
  Provisional (1) Provisional (2) Provisional (1) Provisional (2)
Total final consumption 80.1 79.4 3.8 3.6
    Actual individual consumption of households 72.3 72.2 3.8 3.5
       Final consumption expenditure of
64.6 64.8 3.8 3.5
       Final consumption expenditure of
       Non-profit institutions serving households
1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0
       Individual final consumption expenditure
       of General government
6.7 6.3 0.0 0.0
    Collective final consumption expenditure
    of General government
7.8 7.2 0.0 0.1
Gross fixed capital formation 20.7 21.4 1.6 2.0
Change in inventories -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4
Net export -0.6 0.1 -1.6 -0.8
    Export of goods and services 42.6 44.9 1.8 3.4
    Import of goods and services 43.2 44.8 3.4 4.2
Gross domestic product 100.0 100.0 3.3 3.4
Source: INS        

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