Raiffeisen raises Albanias 2011 GDP growth to 5%.

By bne IntelliNews April 6, 2011
Austrian financial group Raiffeisen Bank raised its forecast for Albanias 2011 real GDP growth to 5%, the group said in its latest CEE Strategy report. In its December forecast Raiffeisen said the countrys 2011 GDP will grow by 3.3%. Albanias economic expansion will be well above the average 1.8% expected for the southeastern Europe. Raiffeisen expects the countrys GDP to further grow by 5.5% y/y in 2012, well over the SEE average of 3.4% y/y. The current account deficit will slightly deteriorate to 11% of the GDP in 2011from 10.3% in the previous year, but will improve by 2pps in 2012. Consumer prices in the country are projected to rise by 3.4% y/y in 2011 and by 3% y/y in 2012, slowing down from 3.6% y/y in 2010. According to Raiffeisen the government will not be able to achieve a notable fiscal consolidation as general budget deficit is forecasted to improve only marginally to 5.6% of GDP in 2011.
Raiffeisen Bank projections for 2011 (%)
GDP Inflation CA balance Budget balance
Albania 5.0 3.4 -11.0 -5.6
Bosnia 2.0 3.0 -7.3 -3.4
Bulgaria 2.5 4.2 1.0 -2.6
Croatia 1.0 3.0 -3.1 -6.3
Romania 1.5 6.2 -4.8 -5.4
Serbia 2.5 8.5 -7.9 -4.0
SEE 1.8 5.4 -4.4 -4.9
Source: Raiffeisen Bank, Central and Eastern European Strategy for Q2

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