Raiffeisen lowers Albania’s 2014 GDP growth forecast to 2%.

By bne IntelliNews January 14, 2014

Albania's economic output is expected to grow by a real 2% y/y in 2014, speeding up from 1.7% y/y in 2013, Austria’s Raiffeisen International said in its latest CEE Strategy quarterly report published on its website. The bank has cut its estimate from a 3% y/y rise expected in October 2013.

Albania’s current account deficit is projected at 9.2% of GDP in 2014. The consumer price growth is forecast to accelerate from 2% y/y in 2013 to 2.3% y/y in 2014 and to 2.5% y/y in 2015.

Raiffeisen sees the country’s general budget deficit at 6.6% of GDP in 2014, widening from 6% in 2013. The gap is expected to narrow to 4.5% of GDP in 2015. The government debt is expected to increase from 68% of GDP at end-2013 to 72% at end-2014, and then again drop to 68% at end-2015.

Raiffeisen Bank projections for 2014 (%)
   GDP Inflation CA balance Budget balance Public debt
Albania 2.0 2.3 -9.2 -6.6 72.0
Bulgaria 2.0 2.2 0.7 -1.8 22.0
Romania 2.3 2.1 -2.0 -2.5 39.0
Bosnia  1.5 2.5 -8.6 -1.0 39.6
Serbia 1.0 5.5 -5.1 -6.9 63.1
Croatia 0.0 1.6 0.0 -5.8 65.3
SEE 1.7 2.4 -2.4 -3.5 44.4
Source:  Raiffeisen Bank, Central and Eastern European Strategy for Q1 2014  
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