Raiffeisen lowers Albania’s 2014 GDP growth forecast to 2%.

By bne IntelliNews January 14, 2014

Albania's economic output is expected to grow by a real 2% y/y in 2014, speeding up from 1.7% y/y in 2013, Austria’s Raiffeisen International said in its latest CEE Strategy quarterly report published on its website. The bank has cut its estimate from a 3% y/y rise expected in October 2013.

Albania’s current account deficit is projected at 9.2% of GDP in 2014. The consumer price growth is forecast to accelerate from 2% y/y in 2013 to 2.3% y/y in 2014 and to 2.5% y/y in 2015.

Raiffeisen sees the country’s general budget deficit at 6.6% of GDP in 2014, widening from 6% in 2013. The gap is expected to narrow to 4.5% of GDP in 2015. The government debt is expected to increase from 68% of GDP at end-2013 to 72% at end-2014, and then again drop to 68% at end-2015.

Raiffeisen Bank projections for 2014 (%)
   GDP Inflation CA balance Budget balance Public debt
Albania 2.0 2.3 -9.2 -6.6 72.0
Bulgaria 2.0 2.2 0.7 -1.8 22.0
Romania 2.3 2.1 -2.0 -2.5 39.0
Bosnia  1.5 2.5 -8.6 -1.0 39.6
Serbia 1.0 5.5 -5.1 -6.9 63.1
Croatia 0.0 1.6 0.0 -5.8 65.3
SEE 1.7 2.4 -2.4 -3.5 44.4
Source:  Raiffeisen Bank, Central and Eastern European Strategy for Q1 2014  

Related Articles

Shell to invest $42.5mn in oil, gas exploration in Albania

International oil major Shell plans to invest $42.5mn in oil and gas exploration in southern Albania over the next seven years, Albania’s National Agency of Natural Resources ... more

Freedom House keeps “partly free” status for Macedonia despite new government’s efforts

Macedonia was rated only “partly free” in the latest report from international watchdog Freedom House, the same almost all of the six Western Balkan countries, despite efforts by the ... more

Albania’s central bank to issue new high-denomination banknote

The Albania’s central bank has announced it will issue a new ALL10,000 (€74.9) banknote. The new ALL10,000 banknote will have the highest value issued so far, as the current biggest value ... more