Polish MPC again hints at possibly change of 'forward guidance' in July

By bne IntelliNews May 23, 2014

During their May sitting, member of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) maintained their assessment that the interest rates should kept unchanged for a longer period of time, i.e. at least until the end of Q3 of 2014. The Council members also maintained that a more comprehensive assessment of a need to change the horizon of keeping the interest rates at the current level will probably be possible during the July meeting of the Council, when a new NBP projection will be presented, according to the sitting's "minutes."

The Council left the interest rates unchanged (since July of 2013) at the following levels: the reference rate at 2.50%, the lombard rate at 4.00%, the deposit rate at 1.00% and the rediscount rate at 2.75%.

In their discussion on inflation developments, Council members pointed to inflation remaining markedly below the NBP inflation target and still low core inflation, despite a rise in one of its measures. It was also emphasised that producer prices continued to decrease, and that inflation expectations remained low. Some Council members noted that the available forecasts pointed to a slightly slower rise in inflation in the coming months than envisaged in the March projection. Taking this into account, a few Council members expressed the opinion that inflation might return to the target later than forecasted in the March projection. Some Council members presented the view that accelerated economic growth might translate into a rise in inflation to a greater extent than currently forecasted, the central bank reported.

In March, MPC set the deadline in the "forward guidance" at the end of Q3 of 2014 vs. earlier end of H1 of 2014.

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