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Poland's consumer price index (CPI) grew 2.2% y/y in September, 0.4pp faster than the annual expansion in August, statistics office GUS announced in a flash estimate on August 31.
The reading shows that the inflation rate picked up speed for a third straight month to the level last seen in February, when surging CPI prompted speculation of a shortening timeline for a change in interest rates.
Poland’s interest rates have sat at a record-low level of 1.5% for close to three years, and despite the robust economy, a hike is expected no earlier than late 2018, due to concern that inflationary pressure remains tepid.
Poland suffered deflation throughout 2015 and 2016. The MPC's next meeting on rates is scheduled for October 3-4. The surge in September might revive discussion on the future course of monetary policy during the meeting.
Given the rather subdued tempo of price growth in most of the year so far, the CPI dynamics remain supportive of the MPC's stance that inflation will not cross the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) inflation target of 2.5%. However, some analysts have warned that the current structure of GDP growth –with private consumption in the driving seat – is “pro-inflationary.”
The CPI estimate does not contain a breakdown of inflation drivers. Full information on CPI in May will be released on October 12.
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