Polish industrial production grew an unadjusted 12.1% y/y in October in constant prices, data from statistical office GUS showed on November 20. In seasonally adjusted terms, industrial production grew 9.7% y/y.
The reading expanded as much as 7.8pp in unadjusted terms compared to annual industrial output growth recorded for September. The acceleration was due in part to calendar effects, but with calendar-adjusted growth adding 2.2pp to the adjusted annual reading from the previous month, it is clear that the Polish industry is in robust condition. That is a harbinger of another quarter of fast economic growth in October-December
GDP expanded 5% y/y in the third quarter, according to a flash estimate published earlier this month. Based on positive data from the industrial and retail sectors, analysts are confident that GDP will grow at least 4% y/y in the fourth quarter.
Fast economic growth and the tightening labour market, which fuels wage expansion, are likely to have even the dovish members of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Council thinking twice about their position, Bank Millennium speculates.
On top of that, following a slump last year related to a drop in EU structural fund inflows, construction continued to recover in October, even if at slightly slower pace.
Output in the sector grew by unadjusted 20.3% y/y last month, compared to growth of 15.5% y/y in September. In adjusted terms, the growth in construction came in at 19.1% y/y versus 17.9% y/y the previous month.
Output in manufacturing grew by an unadjusted 14% y/y in October, while production in the utilities segment grew 2% on the year. Water supply and waste management saw production grow 5% on the year. Mining and quarrying was the only one of the main segments to see production fall, by 1.5% y/y.
In monthly unadjusted terms, industrial production grew 5.1%, while expanding 1.7% m/m following adjustment. Growth came in at 6.6% y/y in January-October.