Polish industrial production grows just 2.7% y/y in December

Polish industrial production grows just 2.7% y/y in December
By bne IntelliNews January 21, 2018

Polish industrial production grew an unadjusted 2.7% y/y in December in constant prices, data from statistical office GUS showed on January 19. The feeble growth owed to calendar effects as in adjusted terms, output expanded by a solid 7.3% y/y.

The sector's performance continues to be supported by the economic recovery of Poland’s main trading partners and the resulting growth in exports, Bank Millennium writes. “Additional support comes from strong domestic and consumer demand, as well as a recovery in investment,” the bank added.

On top of that, following a slump last year related to a drop in EU structural fund inflows, construction continues to recover in December, albeit at a slower pace – again an effect of the calendar. Output in the sector grew by unadjusted 12.7% y/y last month, compared to growth of 19.8% y/y in November. In adjusted terms, the growth in construction came in at 17.6% y/y versus 16.2% y/y in the eleventh month.

As a result, Poland’s economic growth in the final quarter of the year will be only marginally slower than in July-September, when it expanded 5.2% y/y in seasonally adjusted terms, analysts predict.

Broken down by sector, output in manufacturing grew by an unadjusted 3.5% y/y in December, while production in utilities inched 0.7% on the year. Water supply and waste management saw production fall 0.6% y/y. Production in mining and quarrying fell 8.4% y/y.

In monthly unadjusted terms, industrial production fell 10.2% and grew 1.8% following adjustment. Growth came in at 6.5% in 2017, the fastest since 2011.