The need to raise interest rates in Poland will come in Q4 of 2014 rather than in Q3 of 2013, according to member of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) Andrzej Bratkowski, perceived to be the most "dovish" central banker.
He stressed - in an interview with private Radio PIN - that economic growth of below 3% still triggers no inflationary pressures. Bratkowski also pointed to the GDOP growth's structure - being dominated by exports, with investments expected to join in later; they, in turn will only be followed by consumer demand, he deems. Such a structure is especially beneficial for low inflation, the central banker noted.
Recently, MPC repeatedly stated that the current and expected economic situation speaks in favour of keeping interest rates unchanged at least the middle of 2014. Bank economists expect interest rates to be raised probably only in September or Q4 of 2014.
Bratkowski also said he expects GDP growth to be below 3.0% in the whole of 2014, though he admitted that it may exceed this mark in Q4 of 2014.
In its November CPI/ GDP projection, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) upgraded Poland's GDP growth forecasts for 2014 by 0.5pps compared to its July projection - to 2.9%. NBP now expects GDP growth this year at 1.3%, which is by 0.2pps more than in the July document (vs. 1.9% in 2012).
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