Polish central banker Bratkowski: Rate hike more likely in Q4 than Q3 of 2014

By bne IntelliNews November 26, 2013

The need to raise interest rates in Poland will come in Q4 of 2014 rather than in Q3 of 2013, according to member of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) Andrzej Bratkowski, perceived to be the most "dovish" central banker.
He stressed - in an interview with private Radio PIN - that economic growth of below 3% still triggers no inflationary pressures. Bratkowski also pointed to the GDOP growth's structure - being dominated by exports, with investments expected to join in later; they, in turn will only be followed by consumer demand, he deems. Such a structure is especially beneficial for low inflation, the central banker noted.
Recently, MPC repeatedly stated that the current and expected economic situation speaks in favour of keeping interest rates unchanged at least the middle of 2014. Bank economists expect interest rates to be raised probably only in September or Q4 of 2014.
Bratkowski also said he expects GDP growth to be below 3.0% in the whole of 2014, though he admitted that it may exceed this mark in Q4 of 2014.
In its November CPI/ GDP projection, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) upgraded Poland's GDP growth forecasts for 2014 by 0.5pps compared to its July projection - to 2.9%. NBP now expects GDP growth this year at 1.3%, which is by 0.2pps more than in the July document (vs. 1.9% in 2012).

Related Articles

Central European banks eye south-eastern expansion

Banking merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in Central Europe is likely to be further limited by the upturn in the region’s economies, industry sources said in comments published on May 29. ... more

RBI doubles net profit y/y in Q1 as Russian business recovers

Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), the second largest bank operating across Central and Eastern Europe by assets, reported that net profit almost doubled year-on-year to €220mn in the first ... more

Poland shrugs off EU bid to toughen rule of law probe

The EU’s General Affairs Council urged Poland on May 16 to talk with the European Commission about its alleged violations of the rule of law, as Brussels continued to hold back from imposing ... more

Register here to continue reading this article and 2 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $119/year.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.

Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and magazine

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and monthly magazine, the leading source of business, economic and financial news and commentary in emerging markets.

Your subscription includes:

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

bne IntelliNews
$119 per year

All prices are in US dollars net of applicable taxes.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Dismiss