Poland's C/A deficit expands to EUR 1135mn in January, exceeding consensus

By bne IntelliNews March 18, 2014

Poland's current-account balance was negative for the seventh month in a row - after three consecutive months of surpluses - and amounted to EUR 1,135mn in January of 2014 vs. gap of EUR 843mn a month earlier and a deficit of EUR 1,375mn in January of 2013, according to the data of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). Market consensus was deficit of EUR 748 -761mn.
The central bank attributed the C/A figure to negative balance of income (EUR 1,432mn) and current transfers (EUR 286mn) and as well as positive balance of trade in goods (EUR 419mn; broadly in line with market consensus) and services (EUR 164mn). Total balance of current and capital accounts was negative and amounted to EUR 1,161mn.
NBP reported that Poland's exports increased by 10.6% y/y to EUR 13,503mn in January of 2013. Imports noted a rise of 6.6% to EUR 13,085mn. In the entire 2013, exports increased by 4.5% y/y to EUR 155,145mn (vs. 4.2% growth in 2012), while imports were down by 0.3% y/y to EUR 153,165mn (vs. growth of 0.9% in 2012).
Thus, exports remains a key factor driving the Polish economy, additionally supported by an upturn in Western Europe. A more dynamic growth of imports is a sign of strengthening domestic demand, but it should also be attributed to foreign direct investors' income on their capital involvement in Polish companies amounting to EUR 1,069mn. In January of 2014, the balance of EU transfers was negative (as usually in this part of a year) and amounted to EUR 405mn - EU membership premiums paid amounted to EUR 406mn.

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