Overwhelming victory to keep Putin in the Russian presidency until 2024

Overwhelming victory to keep Putin in the Russian presidency until 2024
/ Kremlin.ru
By bne IntelliNews March 19, 2018

Russia's President Vladimir Putin was as expected reelected for his fourth non-consecutive six-year term on March 18, extending his rule until at least 2024.

Putin was voted for by 76.66% of the Russians that participated in the election, with little competition from dinosaur systemic politicians such as communist Pavel Grudinin (11.8% of votes) and ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky (5.66%).

Opposition leader Alexei Navalny was denied the chance to run in the presidential race on the grounds of his criminal conviction, and was neutralised by being placed in detention for the election period.

Celebrity socialite Xenia (aka Ksenia) Sobchak gained just 1.67% of the vote; while remaining on the margins she notably beat the veteran liberal politician Grigory Yavlinsky of the Yabloko party with 1.04% of the vote. Pro-Kremlin business ombudsman Boris Titov did not pass the 1% mark, scoring a dismal 0.76%.

Alfa Bank noted on March 19 that support for liberal candidates dropped compared to the previous election, when the "business candidate" Mikhail Prokhorov polled in third place with 8% of the vote.

The bank sees this as reflecting the inability of the liberal bloc to come up with a single candidate, and the annexation of Crimea and subsequent confrontation with the West "substantially eroding support for the liberal parties, traditionally considered pro-West". 

Putin’s re-election can be seen as a success for the Kremlin as it largely complied with the so-called 70/70 plan: to get a 70% turnout and a 70% vote for Putin. The voter turnout is reported at 67.5%.

In the months running up to the elections, while Putin's ratings remained at a record high of above 80%, the greatest threat to his re-election was perhaps public apathy or indecisiveness, with polls showing that over 40% of Russian didn’t know who to vote for, or whether they would vote at all. 

Low turnout at municipal and regional elections in September 2017 showed that voter inactivity could jeopardise the Kremlin's plan for a triumphant extension of Putin's presidency. Fears of a similarly low turnout on March 18 were also fuelled by reports that the Kremlin suffered from a vacuum of both ideological and economic ideas, and was struggling to come up with a coherent 2018 campaign message or mobilise policymakers to re-draft the path to sustainable economic growth.

Indeed, Putin’s pre-election federal address showed that he is starting his sixth term without a clear economic agenda, as the economic part of his address was seen as incoherent and ridden with unrealistic policy goals

But while no coherent re-election vision or economic agenda was produced, the Kremlin played the sure card of ramping up tensions with the West and playing the invincible "us against the world" tune, which has in the end helped to mobilise voters.  

Tensions between Russia and West reached new highs in the pre-election period, with Putin delivering his most militarist address to date during his recent state of the nation speech and the UK and Russia getting embroiled in a diplomatic stand-off over the controversial poisoning of the former double agent Sergei Skripal on British soil.

"The high level of endorsement for Vladimir Putin is a double-edged sword," Alfa Bank commented.

"On one hand, it provides the president with plenty of scope for manoeuver in his decision-making and will probably reinforce Russia’s effort to challenge US dominance in the world," the bank believes. 

"On the other hand, however, high popularity provides little incentive for economic reforms; thus, we reiterate our strong belief that budget policy will be the key focus after 2018 while structural changes are unlikely to be a priority," Alfa Bank analysts write.

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