Nigeria’s Q4 GDP growth slows to 5.94% y/y despite oil sector recovery

By bne IntelliNews February 23, 2015

Nigeria’s real gross domestic product grew by 5.94% y/y in the fourth quarter, slowing from a 6.23% expansion in the preceding quarter, as a recovery in the oil sector could not offset a slower growth in non-oil GDP, data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. In Q4 2013, the country’s GDP expanded by 6.77% y/y.

However, the West African country’s full-year GDP growth accelerated to 6.22% last year from 5.49% in 2013.

In Q4, the oil sector of Africa’s biggest oil producer recovered, posting a 1.18% y/y growth after a 3.6% y/y contraction in Q3. This came as the average daily crude oil production increased to 2.18mbpd from 2.15mbpd in Q3 and 2.16mbpd in Q4 2014. Oil exports account for about 70% of government revenues, but the country is troubled by widespread pipeline vandalism and oil theft, in addition to the oil price slump. The oil sector contributed 8.97% to real GDP in Q4, down from 10.45% in Q3.

On the other hand, growth in the non-oil sector decelerated to 6.44% in Q4 from 7.51% in Q3 due to a slowdown in agriculture (to 3.64% from 4.47%) and services (to 6.15% from 7.61%).

In q/q comparison terms, Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed sharply to 3.84% from 8.67% in Q4, as the agriculture sector contracted by 6.97% (+38.5% in Q3), and industry shrank 2.79% (+1.34% in Q3).

The services sector accounted for the largest share of real GDP in Q3 – 53.48%, followed by agriculture with a share of 23.86% and industry with 22.66%.

Nigeria’s nominal GDP (at basic prices) was estimated at NGN24.21trn ($121.2bn) in Q4.

Nigeria’s GDP growth is widely expected to slow this year (IMF: 4.8%, World Bank: 5.5%), reflecting weak oil prices, a sharp depreciation of the local naira currency, and political risks.

Real growth rate by sector Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14
Agriculture, y/y 2.46% 2.57% 3.44% 3.02% 5.53% 3.68% 4.47% 3.64%
Agriculture, q/q -29.12% 12.74% 37.48% -6.23% -27.39% 10.76% 38.53% -6.97%
Industry, y/y 1.82% 0.89% -0.10% 6.44% 4.84% 8.97% 5.43% 7.96%
Industry, q/q 12.55% -4.89% 4.73% -5.06% 10.86% -1.15% 1.34% -2.79%
Services, y/y 6.70% 8.95% 9.08% 8.72% 7.20% 6.54% 7.61% 6.15%
Services, q/q -9.26% 5.14% -0.48% 14.51% -10.53% 4.50% 0.51% 13.00%
Total, y/y 4.45% 5.40% 5.17% 6.77% 6.21% 6.54% 6.23% 5.94%
Total, q/q -9.41% 3.86% 8.99% 4.12% -9.88% 4.18% 8.67% 3.84%
Source: NBS                

Related Articles

South Africa’s MTN fears sanctions may hinder profits repatriation from Iran

MTN Group, one of Africa’s biggest mobile operators, has said it will struggle to repatriate profits from its Iranian subsidiary MTN-Irancell if heavy sanctions are reimposed on Iran following ... more

Russia's Rosneft sets foot in Mediterranean with $1.125bn Eni deal

Russia's largest oil producer state-controlled Rosneft has acquired 30% in the largest natural gas field in the Mediterranean from Italian Eni, the company announced on October 9. Rosneft that ... more

PetroSA, Rosgeo sign $400mn oil and gas exploration agreement for South Africa

South Africa's national oil company PetroSA and Rosgeo, the geological exploration company of the Russian Federation, have signed an agreement on a $400mn oil and gas development project in South ... more

Dismiss