Nigeria’s real gross domestic product grew by 5.94% y/y in the fourth quarter, slowing from a 6.23% expansion in the preceding quarter, as a recovery in the oil sector could not offset a slower growth in non-oil GDP, data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. In Q4 2013, the country’s GDP expanded by 6.77% y/y.
However, the West African country’s full-year GDP growth accelerated to 6.22% last year from 5.49% in 2013.
In Q4, the oil sector of Africa’s biggest oil producer recovered, posting a 1.18% y/y growth after a 3.6% y/y contraction in Q3. This came as the average daily crude oil production increased to 2.18mbpd from 2.15mbpd in Q3 and 2.16mbpd in Q4 2014. Oil exports account for about 70% of government revenues, but the country is troubled by widespread pipeline vandalism and oil theft, in addition to the oil price slump. The oil sector contributed 8.97% to real GDP in Q4, down from 10.45% in Q3.
On the other hand, growth in the non-oil sector decelerated to 6.44% in Q4 from 7.51% in Q3 due to a slowdown in agriculture (to 3.64% from 4.47%) and services (to 6.15% from 7.61%).
In q/q comparison terms, Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed sharply to 3.84% from 8.67% in Q4, as the agriculture sector contracted by 6.97% (+38.5% in Q3), and industry shrank 2.79% (+1.34% in Q3).
The services sector accounted for the largest share of real GDP in Q3 – 53.48%, followed by agriculture with a share of 23.86% and industry with 22.66%.
Nigeria’s nominal GDP (at basic prices) was estimated at NGN24.21trn ($121.2bn) in Q4.
Nigeria’s GDP growth is widely expected to slow this year (IMF: 4.8%, World Bank: 5.5%), reflecting weak oil prices, a sharp depreciation of the local naira currency, and political risks.
| Real growth rate by sector | Q1'13 | Q2'13 | Q3'13 | Q4'13 | Q1'14 | Q2'14 | Q3'14 | Q4'14 |
| Agriculture, y/y | 2.46% | 2.57% | 3.44% | 3.02% | 5.53% | 3.68% | 4.47% | 3.64% |
| Agriculture, q/q | -29.12% | 12.74% | 37.48% | -6.23% | -27.39% | 10.76% | 38.53% | -6.97% |
| Industry, y/y | 1.82% | 0.89% | -0.10% | 6.44% | 4.84% | 8.97% | 5.43% | 7.96% |
| Industry, q/q | 12.55% | -4.89% | 4.73% | -5.06% | 10.86% | -1.15% | 1.34% | -2.79% |
| Services, y/y | 6.70% | 8.95% | 9.08% | 8.72% | 7.20% | 6.54% | 7.61% | 6.15% |
| Services, q/q | -9.26% | 5.14% | -0.48% | 14.51% | -10.53% | 4.50% | 0.51% | 13.00% |
| Total, y/y | 4.45% | 5.40% | 5.17% | 6.77% | 6.21% | 6.54% | 6.23% | 5.94% |
| Total, q/q | -9.41% | 3.86% | 8.99% | 4.12% | -9.88% | 4.18% | 8.67% | 3.84% |
| Source: NBS |
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