Nigeria’s Q4 GDP growth slows to 5.94% y/y despite oil sector recovery

By bne IntelliNews February 23, 2015

Nigeria’s real gross domestic product grew by 5.94% y/y in the fourth quarter, slowing from a 6.23% expansion in the preceding quarter, as a recovery in the oil sector could not offset a slower growth in non-oil GDP, data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. In Q4 2013, the country’s GDP expanded by 6.77% y/y.

However, the West African country’s full-year GDP growth accelerated to 6.22% last year from 5.49% in 2013.

In Q4, the oil sector of Africa’s biggest oil producer recovered, posting a 1.18% y/y growth after a 3.6% y/y contraction in Q3. This came as the average daily crude oil production increased to 2.18mbpd from 2.15mbpd in Q3 and 2.16mbpd in Q4 2014. Oil exports account for about 70% of government revenues, but the country is troubled by widespread pipeline vandalism and oil theft, in addition to the oil price slump. The oil sector contributed 8.97% to real GDP in Q4, down from 10.45% in Q3.

On the other hand, growth in the non-oil sector decelerated to 6.44% in Q4 from 7.51% in Q3 due to a slowdown in agriculture (to 3.64% from 4.47%) and services (to 6.15% from 7.61%).

In q/q comparison terms, Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed sharply to 3.84% from 8.67% in Q4, as the agriculture sector contracted by 6.97% (+38.5% in Q3), and industry shrank 2.79% (+1.34% in Q3).

The services sector accounted for the largest share of real GDP in Q3 – 53.48%, followed by agriculture with a share of 23.86% and industry with 22.66%.

Nigeria’s nominal GDP (at basic prices) was estimated at NGN24.21trn ($121.2bn) in Q4.

Nigeria’s GDP growth is widely expected to slow this year (IMF: 4.8%, World Bank: 5.5%), reflecting weak oil prices, a sharp depreciation of the local naira currency, and political risks.

Real growth rate by sector Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14
Agriculture, y/y 2.46% 2.57% 3.44% 3.02% 5.53% 3.68% 4.47% 3.64%
Agriculture, q/q -29.12% 12.74% 37.48% -6.23% -27.39% 10.76% 38.53% -6.97%
Industry, y/y 1.82% 0.89% -0.10% 6.44% 4.84% 8.97% 5.43% 7.96%
Industry, q/q 12.55% -4.89% 4.73% -5.06% 10.86% -1.15% 1.34% -2.79%
Services, y/y 6.70% 8.95% 9.08% 8.72% 7.20% 6.54% 7.61% 6.15%
Services, q/q -9.26% 5.14% -0.48% 14.51% -10.53% 4.50% 0.51% 13.00%
Total, y/y 4.45% 5.40% 5.17% 6.77% 6.21% 6.54% 6.23% 5.94%
Total, q/q -9.41% 3.86% 8.99% 4.12% -9.88% 4.18% 8.67% 3.84%
Source: NBS                

Related Articles

Kenya, South Korea sign MoU on nuclear research reactor project at IAEA conference in Vienna

Kenya and South Korea have agreed to deepen cooperation on nuclear research and development, signing a memorandum of understanding focused on the Kenya Nuclear Research Reactor (KNRR) project at ... more

South African holding Naspers' 5-for-1 share split takes effect October 6, targeting wider retail base on JSE

Naspers, a South African multinational holding company and technology investor listed on the JSE, will implement a five-for-one share split in October, reducing the nominal price of its stock to make ... more

Ghana recovers $820,000 in salary paid to public service "ghost workers"

Ghana’s Auditor-General has clawed back GHS10mn ($820,000) in unearned salaries from public servants who continued to draw pay long after leaving their jobs, in a crackdown on “ghost workers” ... more

Dismiss