Nigeria’s Q3 GDP growth slows to 6.23% y/y with oil sector back into contraction

By bne IntelliNews November 17, 2014

Nigeria’s real gross domestic product grew by 6.23% y/y in the third quarter, slowing from a 6.54% expansion in the preceding quarter as the oil sector swung back into contraction, offsetting a stronger growth in non-oil GDP, data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. In Q3 2013, the country’s GDP expanded by 5.17% y/y.

After expanding by 5.14% y/y in Q2, its first growth since Q2 2012, the oil sector of Africa’s biggest oil producer shrank by 3.6% y/y in Q3 as the average daily crude oil production fell 2.7% q/q to 2.15mbpd. Compared to the same period last year, Q3’s output was 4.9% lower. Oil exports account for about 70% of government revenues, but the country is troubled by widespread pipeline vandalism and oil theft, in addition to the recent drop in oil prices. The oil sector contributed 10.45% to real GDP in Q3, down from 10.76% in Q2.

On the other hand, growth in the non-oil sector quickened to 7.51% in Q3 from 6.71% in Q2, driven by the sectors of crop production, textile, apparel and footwear, telecommunications, and real estate, NBS said.

In q/q comparison terms, Nigeria’s GDP growth more than doubled to 8.67% from 4.18% in Q3, as the agriculture sector, expanded by 38.5% (+10.8% in Q2), and industry returned to growth (+1.3% in Q3 vs. -1.2% in Q2).

The services sector accounted for the largest share of real GDP in Q3 – 49.2%, followed by agriculture with a share of 26.6% and industry with 24.2%.

Nigeria’s nominal GDP (at basic prices) was estimated at NGN22.933trn ($134.8bn).

The IMF said last month that growth in Nigeria has been resilient despite poor security conditions and a decline in oil production and forecast GDP growth to speed up to 7.0% this year from 5.4% in 2013.

Real growth rate by sector Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14
Agriculture, y/y 2.46% 2.57% 3.44% 3.02% 5.53% 3.68% 4.47%
Agriculture, q/q -29.12% 12.74% 37.48% -6.23% -27.39% 10.76% 38.53%
Industry, y/y 1.82% 0.89% -0.10% 6.44% 4.84% 8.97% 5.43%
Industry, q/q 12.55% -4.89% 4.73% -5.06% 10.86% -1.15% 1.34%
Services, y/y 6.70% 8.95% 9.08% 8.72% 7.20% 6.54% 7.61%
Services, q/q -9.26% 5.14% -0.48% 14.51% -10.53% 4.50% 0.51%
Total, y/y 4.45% 5.40% 5.17% 6.77% 6.21% 6.54% 6.23%
Total, q/q -9.41% 3.86% 8.99% 4.12% -9.88% 4.18% 8.67%
Source: NBS              

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