Polish enterprises' economic situation has been improving gradually and their forecasts for Q3 of 2014 are slightly more optimistic than those expressed in Q2, according to the National Bank of Poland's (NB) June survey based on a poll among 1340 firms from all sectors of the economy. However, their mid-term forecasts have deteriorated.
The surveyed firms assess that their standing improved in Q2 of 2014 compared to the previous quarter. The percentage of those perceiving their situation as "very good" rose by 2pps q/q to 75%. They expect economic growth to pick up in Q3 of 2014, on the back of more dynamic investment activity and relatively high profitability, especially in the case of exports-oriented enterprises. The factors slowing down growth could include stable growth of retail sales and weak improvement on the labour market, the central bank reported.
However, exporters do not expect further acceleration of exports' growth dynamics. The exporta accords' indicator inched down by 0.8pps q/q, while the indicator of new exports accords rose by 2.0pps q/q; at the same time, exports leading indicator rose by 4.5pps. All these indicators are close to their long-term averages, which has prompted NBP to expect relatively high dynamics of exports' growth.
The central bank also notes that exporters' situation is clearly better than those companies that are focused on domestic market, while the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has not impacted their standing and sales levels to any significant extend. NBP explains that after the 1998 crisis, the enterprises that export their products to these countries are stronger and bigger entities whose export markets are also elsewhere, so that their sales are balances geographically.
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