The central-point forecast by economists from 21 institutions for the average annual inflation is 0.5% in 2014, 1.7% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, according to a survey by the National Bank of Poland (NBP). In 2013, the average CPI inflation was 0.9% vs. 3.7% in 2012.
The survey is carried out in March, June, September and December. In the previous round, the central-point growth figures were 1.2% for 2014, 2.3% for 2015 and 2.5% for 2016.
The 50% deviation ranges for the June round of forecasts is: 0.2-0.9% for 2014, 1.3-2.2% for 2015 and 1.8-2.9% for 2016.
In its July projection, NBP has lowered its expected path of inflation for the next few years and it now expects CPI inflation to remain at the level below the NBP target (of 2.5% y/y) throughout the period of its projection, i.e. from Q2 of 2014 till Q4 of 2016. In March, it expected inflation to remain below the target till Q1 of 2016.
In May, consumer inflation was 0.2% y/y.
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