Morocco's CPI inflation quickens to 2.8% y/y in May 2013

By bne IntelliNews June 20, 2013

Morocco's CPI inflation accelerated to 2.8% y/y in May from 2.4% the month before on higher food, clothing, transport and restaurants price growth, the statistics office HCP said. Alcohol and tobacco and transport charges remained high and the telecoms services annual deflation narrowed sharply, helping lift the overall price growth.

The strong harvest season continues to keep CPI inflation anchored but the pattern might reverse in H2 as food stocks weaken while a strong private consumption is fuelling inflationary pressures. Earlier this week, the central bank maintained its key rate unchanged at 3%, citing near and-medium-term subdued CPI inflation and still weak global economic activity and related demand.

Morocco’s CPI inflation will accelerate to 2.5% in 2013 from 1.3% a year earlier, according to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook published in April. In January-May, CPI inflation averaged 2.4% y/y.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.5% m/m compared with a 0.0% growth in April.

Food prices (45% of basket) grew 1.0% m/m in May, lifting the annual growth to 3.2% y/y from 2.8% the month before. Fresh vegetable prices increased 6.6% m/m as a result of seasonable factors compared with a 0.8% drop in April. Fruit charges rose 2.8% and those of fish increased 2.2% m/m.

Housing prices (13% of basket), which include rents and utilities, inched up 0.1% m/m, keeping the annual rise at 1.0% y/y, the same as in April. Transport prices edged up 0.2% m/m in May, lifting the annual expansion to 5.7% y/y. High crude oil and fuel derivative prices and government efforts to gradually lift subsidies continue to boost transport charges. Alcohol and tobacco prices stagnated in monthly terms, keeping the component’s annual growth at 6.5% y/y, the same as in April. 

  May-12 (y/y) May-13 (m/m) Apr-13 (y/y) May-13 (y/y)
CPI (y/y) 1,0% 0,5% 2,4% 2,8%
Food, non-alc drinks 2,8% 1,0% 2,8% 3,2%
Alcohol, tobacco 0,1% 0,0% 6,5% 6,5%
Clothing, footwear 2,2% 0,0% 1,0% 1,3%
Housing, utilities 0,6% 0,1% 1,0% 1,0%
Furnishings 0,2% 0,1% 0,0% 0,1%
Health 0,8% 0,1% 0,7% 0,7%
Transport 0,7% 0,2% 5,6% 5,7%
Communications -26,5% 0,0% -8,8% -0,3%
Recreation, culture 0,0% -0,1% 1,1% 0,9%
Education 3,0% 0,0% 6,1% 6,1%
Restaurants, hotels 2,3% 0,3% 3,0% 3,3%
Other 1,7% -0,1% 1,4% 1,3%
         
Source:HCP        

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