Morocco’s CPI inflation cools to 0.6% y/y in December, averages 1.6% in 2015

By bne IntelliNews January 22, 2016

Lower food and housing prices coupled with sinking transport cost cut Morocco’s CPI inflation to a 15-month low of 0.6% y/y in December from 0.9% y/y the month before, the statistics office HCP said. In 2015, the CPI inflation averaged 1.6%. Core inflation reached 1.3% last year.

The reading bodes well with the central bank’s wait-and-see monetary stance by keeping its key rate on hold at 2.5% underscoring the subdued medium-term CPI inflation outlook of 1.5% price growth over the next six quarters. The IMF had forecast 1.5% average CPI in Morocco in 2015.

On a monthly basis, the CPI recorded zero m/m growth in December following a 0.5% monthly contraction the preceding month.

Food prices (45% of basket) flattened m/m in December reducing the annual growth to 1.0% from 1.9% y/y in November

Vegetables prices rose 1.6% m/m last month whereas those of fruits dropped 3.5% m/m and those of fish fell 2.4%.

Housing prices (13% of basket), which include rents and utilities stagnated m/m in December, trimming the annual growth to a well anchored 1.1% y/y from 1.2% y/y in November. The reading was mostly dented by falling utilities prices amid dropping crude oil costs.

Transport prices contracted 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y in December. The prices of diesel, fuel oil and gasoline are now being reviewed twice a month depending on the crude oil prices on the international market.

  Dec-14 (y/y) Nov-15 (y/y) Dec-15 (y/y)
CPI  1,6% 0,9% 0,6%
Food, non-alc drinks 1,6% 1,9% 1,0%
Alcohol, tobacco 0,7% 5,5% 5,4%
Clothing, footwear 1,3% 0,8% 0,8%
Housing, utilities 4,5% 1,2% 1,1%
Furnishings 0,6% 0,3% 0,4%
Health -1,2% 0,4% 0,5%
Transport 0,3% -4,5% -2,9%
Communications 0,0% 0,2% 0,0%
Recreation, culture -0,4% 0,6% 0,5%
Education 3,2% 2,1% 2,1%
Restaurants, hotels 1,7% 2,4% 2,7%
Other 0,4% 0,3% 0,3%

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