Morocco’s CPI inflation brakes to 0.9% y/y in November

By bne IntelliNews December 22, 2015

Falling transport costs and Lower food price growth coupled with subdued housing prices, cut Morocco’s CPI inflation to a one-year low of 0.9% y/y in November from 1.4% y/y the month before, the statistics office HCP said. The reading bodes well with the central bank’s wait-and-see monetary stance. The central bank will thus likely keep the benchmark rate unchanged at its MPC sitting set for December 22.

Morocco’s central bank maintained on September 22 its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, underscoring the subdued medium-term CPI inflation outlook at 1.8% in 2015 and an average of 1.5% price growth over the next six quarters

In January-November the CPI inflation averaged 1.6% y/y. The IMF forecasts 1.5% average CPI in Morocco in 2015.

On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.5% in November reversing a 0.4% m/m rise a month earlier.

Food prices (45% of basket) dropped 1.3% m/m in November cutting the annual growth to 1.9% from 3.4% y/y in October. Fresh fruits prices shrank 7.9% m/m in November and those of fish dropped 4.6% y/y. Prices of vegetables also fell 1.8% y/y during the month.

Housing prices (13% of basket), which include rents and utilities ticked up 0.1% m/m in November lifting the annual growth to a well anchored 1.2% y/y. The reading was mostly dampened by falling utilities prices amid dropping crude oil costs.

Transport prices shrank 0.3% m/m and 4.5% y/y in November. The prices of diesel, fuel oil and gasoline are now being reviewed twice a month depending on the crude oil prices on the international market.

Alcohol and tobacco prices climbed 5.5% y/y in November, the same as a month earlier, while those of restaurants and hotels rose 2.4% y/y. 

  Nov-14 (y/y) Oct-15 (y/y) Nov-15 (y/y)
CPI  1,2% 1,4% 0,9%
Food, non-alc drinks 0,1% 3,4% 1,9%
Alcohol, tobacco 0,6% 5,5% 5,5%
Clothing, footwear 1,3% 0,5% 0,8%
Housing, utilities 4,4% 1,1% 1,2%
Furnishings 0,9% 0,2% 0,3%
Health -1,1% 0,5% 0,4%
Transport 2,5% -5,0% -4,5%
Communications 0,0% 0,2% 0,2%
Recreation, culture -1,1% 0,6% 0,6%
Education 3,2% 2,1% 2,1%
Restaurants, hotels 1,9% 2,4% 2,4%
Other 1,0% 0,4% 0,3%

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