Morgan Stanley improves Russia’s 2015 GDP forecast from -5% to -4.2%

By bne IntelliNews July 13, 2015

US investment bank Morgan Stanley improved Russia's forecasted GDP growth in 2015-2016 amid partially recovered oil prices and easing of monetary policy that started earlier than expected, the bank said on July 10. Projected GDP decline was improved from -5% to -4.2% in 2015, and from -1.8% to -1.2% in 2016.

A stronger than expected net exports due to a sharp weakening of the ruble also added to a more optimistic prognosis. Morgan Stanley's new oil price guideline for 2015 is $62 per barrel, for 2016 - $67 per barrel. Inflation in Russia in the middle of 2015 will be at 15.2% and at 12% by the year-end, the forecast said.

The bank's experts also believe that the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will lower the key interest rate by 250 basis points to 9% before the end of the year, and by another 100 basis points in 2016. They expect the regulator to lower the interest rate from 11.5% by 50 basis points at the next meeting of CBR's board of directors set for July 31.

Related Articles

ECB holds a meeting in Riga without Latvian central bank governor

The European Central Bank governing council met in the Latvian capital Riga on June 14 with the host, the beleaguered governor of Latvijas Banka Ilmars Rimsevics, not attending. Rimsevics ... more

One to two-notch downgrade implied for Turkey by spread on eurobond says RBI

A one to two-notch downgrade is implied for Turkey by the spread on its sovereign USD eurobond due 2028, Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) said on June 12. In a note to investors, RBI analyst ... more

Croatia raises €750mn in 10-year Eurobond

Croatia issued €750mn through a Eurobond maturing in 2028 at a yield of 2.898% and bearing a coupon rate of 2.700%, the government announced on June 7. Improving macroeconomic ... more

Dismiss