Morgan Stanley improves Russia’s 2015 GDP forecast from -5% to -4.2%

By bne IntelliNews July 13, 2015

US investment bank Morgan Stanley improved Russia's forecasted GDP growth in 2015-2016 amid partially recovered oil prices and easing of monetary policy that started earlier than expected, the bank said on July 10. Projected GDP decline was improved from -5% to -4.2% in 2015, and from -1.8% to -1.2% in 2016.

A stronger than expected net exports due to a sharp weakening of the ruble also added to a more optimistic prognosis. Morgan Stanley's new oil price guideline for 2015 is $62 per barrel, for 2016 - $67 per barrel. Inflation in Russia in the middle of 2015 will be at 15.2% and at 12% by the year-end, the forecast said.

The bank's experts also believe that the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will lower the key interest rate by 250 basis points to 9% before the end of the year, and by another 100 basis points in 2016. They expect the regulator to lower the interest rate from 11.5% by 50 basis points at the next meeting of CBR's board of directors set for July 31.

Related Articles

London High Court throws out Ukraine’s bond case against Russia

The High Court in London on March 29 ruled that it would not be right for a $3bn Eurobond case brought by Russia against Ukraine to go to full trial since Kyiv has no “justifiable defence” for ... more

Hungary finally joins the negative yield club

Hungary finally joined the negative yield club on March 21 as Government Debt Management Agency AKK  accepted a bid of -0.01% at an auction of 3-month T-bills. Hungarian yields have been on ... more

S&P improves Russia's outlook to Positive

Standard & Poor's improved the outlook on Russia's sovereign ratings from Stable to Positive, while affirming the 'BB+/B' foreign currency rating and 'BBB-/A-3' local currency rating, the agency ... more

Register here to continue reading this article and 2 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $119/year.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.

Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and magazine

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and monthly magazine, the leading source of business, economic and financial news and commentary in emerging markets.

Your subscription includes:
  • Full access to the bne content daily news and features on the website
  • Newsletters direct to your mailbox
  • Print and digital subscription to the monthly bne magazine
  • Digital subscription to the weekly bne newspaper

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

bne IntelliNews
$119 per year

All prices are in US dollars net of applicable taxes.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Register for free to read bne IntelliNews Magazine. You'll receive a free digital subscription.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

IntelliNews Pro offers daily news updates delivered to your inbox and in-depth data reports.
Get the emerging markets newswire that financial professionals trust.

"No day starts for my team without IntelliNews Pro" — UBS

Thank-you for requesting an IntelliNews Pro trial. Our team will be in contact with you shortly.

Dismiss