Morgan Stanley improves Russia’s 2015 GDP forecast from -5% to -4.2%

By bne IntelliNews July 13, 2015

US investment bank Morgan Stanley improved Russia's forecasted GDP growth in 2015-2016 amid partially recovered oil prices and easing of monetary policy that started earlier than expected, the bank said on July 10. Projected GDP decline was improved from -5% to -4.2% in 2015, and from -1.8% to -1.2% in 2016.

A stronger than expected net exports due to a sharp weakening of the ruble also added to a more optimistic prognosis. Morgan Stanley's new oil price guideline for 2015 is $62 per barrel, for 2016 - $67 per barrel. Inflation in Russia in the middle of 2015 will be at 15.2% and at 12% by the year-end, the forecast said.

The bank's experts also believe that the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will lower the key interest rate by 250 basis points to 9% before the end of the year, and by another 100 basis points in 2016. They expect the regulator to lower the interest rate from 11.5% by 50 basis points at the next meeting of CBR's board of directors set for July 31.

Related Articles

Kazakhstan’s Bank of Astana SPO to be first ever placement of foreign bank on Moscow Stock Exchange

Kazakhstan’s Bank of Astana (Astana Banki) plans to conduct a secondary offering of shares (SPO) on the Moscow Stock Exchange, RNS news agency reported last week. Bidding will begin on December 14. ... more

Mongolia named among 17 nations on EU’s first ever tax haven blacklist

Mongolia has been listed on the European Union’s first ever tax haven blacklist among 17 countries including South Korea, Namibia, Panama, Trinidad & Tobago, Bahrain and ... more

Uzbekistan and South Korea ink finance and investment deals worth $2.7bn

Uzbekistan and South Korea have signed finance and investment deals worth $2.7bn, state-run news agency has reported. The deals were signed during Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s ... more