Moody’s sees Romania’s near-term rating constrained by reliance on EU, external financing

By bne IntelliNews October 21, 2013

Romania’s near-term economic growth will remain behind that of peers with same rating in other regions due to its exposure to Europe’s economy, while another constraint is its exposure to the global financial volatility due to the reliance on external financing to fund government spending and to private investment needs, Moody’s writes in an annual credit report.

Romania's Baa3/negative government bond rating incorporates the fiscal consolidation achieved over the last two years, but remains constrained by the economy's recent subdued growth performance and outlook. The negative outlook reflects the low GDP growth and the government's relatively high annual debt-refinancing needs that makes the country vulnerable to the uncertain global financial conditions.

Key issues considered by Moody’s regarding improving the country’s outlook to neutral or downgrading it are i. the fiscal consolidation process ii. the GDP growth and iii. the current trends in banks' asset quality and credit growth.

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