Montenegro’s economy will expand by an average of 3.6% during the 2013-2016 period (4.5% in 2016), according to a statement published on the government’s website. The tourism, energy, agriculture and industrial sectors will be the main growth drivers in the next four-year period. A mild rise in private consumption and strong investments growth will also support GDP growth.
The outlook is more optimistic than the latest IMF forecast for an average of 1.9% GDP growth in 2013-2016. The statement was issued after the government adopted the guidelines of macroeconomic and fiscal policy for the period from 2013-2016 at its session last week.
The budget deficit will brake to less than 1.0% of GDP by 2016 from a projected 2.7% of GDP (EUR 95mn) in 2013. Montenegro’s public debt will increase to 54.5% of GDP this year from 52% at end-2012 and will decline to around 50% of GDP in 2016, the government forecast.
Foreign direct investments will remain stable in the next four-year period to reach 11.5% of GDP in 2016.The average inflation will remain subdued at 2.5% in 2013-2016. In 2013, CPI inflation will reach 3.0%.
The government’s growth outlook is based on a mild credit growth of around 3.5% on average during 2013-2016.
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