Macedonias GDP drops 0.3% in 2012.

By bne IntelliNews March 18, 2013
GDP has decreased by a real 0.3% in 2012, reversing positive growth of 2.8% in 2011, according to estimated data of the statistics office. GDP has edged up by 0.2% y/y in Q4, slightly decelerating from 0.3% y/y in Q3. However, these small increases were not sufficient to offset negative annual GDP growth in Q1 and Q2. The full-year data across sectors show that negative growth was reported in industry (down 7.4%) and trade (down 0.2%). Construction, as well as hotels and restaurants were the two best performing sectors last year, as they both posted positive growth of 4.6%. Both sectors decelerated from 2011, though. Growth slowed down in transport, storage and communication as well. Last year, growth of agriculture was unchanged from 2011. The breakdown across expenditure components shows that the last years decline in GDP was driven by dropping household final consumption and exports. Gross capital formation posted strong growth, marginally slower than the one reported in 2011. Growth of imports remained positive in 2012, although much slower than in the previous year. IntelliNews comment: The drop of 2012 GDP is disappointing as it is below the zero growth estimate reported in recent forecasts by the countrys central bank and the European Commission. On the other hand, the full-year outcome is above the 0.5% decline expected by the EBRD as of January. With regard to the performance in 2013, the EBRD, Macedonias central bank and the European Commission project positive growth of 1.8%, 2.2% and 1.5% respectively. We are moderately optimistic in view of three recent releases of data for January that show a significantly narrower decrease in industrial output, positive nominal and real growth of retail sales, as well as positive growth of industrial turnover.
GDP, % y/y real
2011 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 2012
GDP 2.8 -0.9 -0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.3
Final consumption 3.3 0.4 -0.6 -1.6 -0.9 -0.7
Household final consumption 3.9 0.1 -0.3 -2.4 -2.0 -1.2
General government final consumption 0.7 1.7 -2.3 2.1 3.5 1.2
Gross capital formation 12.3 -6.8 29.6 15.5 10.8 12.1
Export of goods and services 11.2 0.0 0.7 -2.9 0.6 -0.4
Import of goods and services 13.2 -0.3 9.6 1.4 3.8 3.6
Source: Statistics office

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