Macedonia returns to CPI deflation in September

By bne IntelliNews October 7, 2015

Macedonia's consumer prices fell 0.3% y/y in September, reversing a 0.1% y/y growth in August, statistics office data showed. In monthly comparison terms, prices eased 0.2% in September after staying flat in August.

Macedonia reported an average annual deflation of 0.3% for the first nine months of the year. In its October edition of the World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast an average annual inflation of 0.1% in Macedonia this year, to accelerate to 1.3% in 2016. The end-year inflation is seen at 0.8% y/y in 2015 and 1.7% y/y in 2016.

The return to annual deflation in September was supported by developments in eight of the 12 CPI basket components. The biggest contribution came from transport prices, which sank 11.2% y/y in September, after dropping 8.7% y/y the month before. This group also accounted for the largest m/m decline in September, of some 3.7%. Within transport, consumer prices of fuels and lubricants went down 20.2% y/y and 6.9% m/m in September.

Food prices, which account for 40.7% of CPI, increased 0.4% y/y in September, after rising 0.3% y/y the month before.

CPI, % y/y      
  Aug'15 Sep'15 Jan-Sep'15
CPI 0.1 -0.3 -0.3
Food and non-alcoholic beverages 0.3 0.4 0.3
Alcoholic beverages, tobacco  5.2 5.2 5.5
Clothing and footwear 0.4 0.6 0.3
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 1.0 0.9 1.2
Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house 3.6 2.6 1.9
Health 2.5 2.3 1.1
Transport -8.7 -11.2 -9.3
Communication -4.1 -4.4 -5.1
Recreation and culture 2.2 1.9 0.0
Education 0.0 0.0 0.0
Restaurants and hotels 2.5 1.2 1.1
Miscellaneous goods and services 0.3 0.2 -0.2
Source: Statistics office      
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