Long-term population decline projected in Slovenia

Long-term population decline projected in Slovenia
By bne IntelliNews March 29, 2017

The population of Slovenia is projected to increase until around 2025 and then to slowly decrease to below 2mn by 2080. Further ageing of the population is also expected in the next 65 years, the Slovenian Statistical Office announced on March 28. 

One of the main risks for sustainable fiscal stability in Slovenia is the rapid ageing of its population, which is expected to significantly increase expenditure on pensions, healthcare and long-term care in the coming decades.

Slovenia’s population will increase to about 2.08mn until 2025, but by January 1, 2080 the population is expected to have fallen to just 1.94mn, according to the results of Population Projections 2015, produced in cooperation between Eurostat and the national statistical offices of EU member states plus Norway.

In the next 65 years, the age structure of Slovenia's population is expected to change significantly. In 2015, the elderly (aged 65 or more) accounted for 17.9% of the population, while in 2057 this share is projected to be close to 31%, falling slightly to 29% by 2080.

The share of children (under 15 years of age) is expected to increase for a few more years, reaching 15.3% in 2021, and then start to drop, bottoming out at about 13.4% in about 20 years’ time. It is then projected to rise again and reach 15.7% in 2080.

In the future the total fertility rate is projected to gradually increase and reach 1.85 in 2080. Life expectancy at birth is expected to increase as well, and boys born in Slovenia in 2080 could expect to live 87 years, and girls more than 91 years.

In 2080, 2,400 more residents are expected to immigrate to Slovenia than emigrate from it. That is nearly five times the net migration recorded in 2015, the statistical office said on March 28.