Lithuanian GDP growth has been revised upward to an unadjusted 1.9% y/y in the second quarter, a second estimate by Statistics Lithuania showed on August 30. The agency put growth at 1.8% in a flash estimate released on July 29.
The reading marks a slowdown of economic growth compared to a revised 2.4% for the first quarter and marks the first time growth has slowed since the first quarter of 2015. While that ends an encouraging trend suggesting a robust recovery, the pace of economic expansion remains equal to the best result recorded last year, and analysts suggest the slowdown is a blip.
Domestic demand remains largely on its own in the driving seat, with the slowdown compared with the first quarter of the year appearing to be the result of deteriorating exports in the oil sector. GDP growth in the second quarter was mainly driven by manufacturing, as well as wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, transportation and storage, accommodation and food services, Statistics Lithuania noted.
In quarterly terms, GDP grew an unadjusted 7.7%, an upward revision from 7.6% in the flash estimate. In adjusted terms, GDP grew 2.1% on the year and 0.2% q/q, while the flash estimate put those figures at 2% and 0.1%, respectively.
Swedbank expects economic growth in 2016 below 3%, even if the slowdown in the second quarter was “probably temporary”.