The Kyrgyz government expects the economy to expand by 6.2% y/y in 2015, according to forecasts featured in a 2015 budget parliament is discussing at the moment. Economic growth in 2016 and 2017 is forecast, respectively, at 6.6% and 7%.
A slowdown in the Russian economy is taking a toll on the Kyrgyz economy, with GDP growth expected to slow down to 3% y/y for full 2014 from 10.5% y/y in 2013, according to IMF figures. The IMF forecasts economic growth at 4.9% y/y in 2015.
Remittances from Kyrgyz migrants working in Russia, which were equivalent to nearly 30% of total GDP in 2013, decreased in the first quarter of 2014 for the first time in five years, according to the latest figures published by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The mining sector is slowing down and it shrank by 6% y/y because of lower turnover at the flagship gold mine Kumtor, the country's largest single GDP contributor at 10% of the national output. Its sales shrank by 4% y/y to $348.4mn in nine months to September 30 on lower gold prices (gold production grew by 10% y/y to 272,303 ounces), operator Centerra Gold said on October 30.
GDP growth was 3.7% y/y in the first ten months of 2014, the government said in a statement on November 12.
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